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Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung : Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!

  • Sell, Friedrich L.
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    In diesem Beitrag formulieren wir zunächst einige Hypothesen über die möglichen Beiträge der Währungspolitik zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung vor dem Hintergrund des berühmten Trilemmas, das prinzipiell für jede Währungsordnung gelöst werden muss. Anschließend lassen wir in einem Überblick die Erfahrungen Revue passieren, welche von den Entwicklungsländern in den vergangenen 30 Jahren mit unterschiedlichen Wechselkursregimes gesammelt wurden. Dabei stellt sich heraus, dass es neben dem von Mundell (1968) formulierten "klassischen" Trilemma für die Währungsordnung ein weiteres gibt, welches sich auf die Gestaltung bzw. Kontrolle der internen Finanzmärkte bezieht und gerade von Schwellenländern beachtet werden muss. Die Alternativen "flexible" versus "feste" Paritäten können sinnvollerweise nur in Verbindung mit einem bestimmten Entwicklungsstand der internen Finanzmärkte und der Entscheidung für einen der alternativen Kontrollmechanismen gewählt werden. Zueinander passende Lösungen beider Trilemmas lassen dann auch positive Entwicklungsbeiträge erwarten und erlauben es sogar, Empfehlungen für Chinas aktuelle Wechselkurspolitik abzuleiten.

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    Paper provided by Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 2004,2.

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    Date of creation: 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20042
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