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Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung: Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!

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  • Sell, Friedrich L.

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag formulieren wir zunächst einige Hypothesen über die möglichen Beiträge der Währungspolitik zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung vor dem Hintergrund des berühmten Trilemmas, das prinzipiell für jede Währungsordnung gelöst werden muss. Anschließend lassen wir in einem Überblick die Erfahrungen Revue passieren, welche von den Entwicklungsländern in den vergangenen 30 Jahren mit unterschiedlichen Wechselkursregimes gesammelt wurden. Dabei stellt sich heraus, dass es neben dem von Mundell (1968) formulierten "klassischen" Trilemma für die Währungsordnung ein weiteres gibt, welches sich auf die Gestaltung bzw. Kontrolle der internen Finanzmärkte bezieht und gerade von Schwellenländern beachtet werden muss. Die Alternativen "flexible" versus "feste" Paritäten können sinnvollerweise nur in Verbindung mit einem bestimmten Entwicklungsstand der internen Finanzmärkte und der Entscheidung für einen der alternativen Kontrollmechanismen gewählt werden. Zueinander passende Lösungen beider Trilemmas lassen dann auch positive Entwicklungsbeiträge erwarten und erlauben es sogar, Empfehlungen für Chinas aktuelle Wechselkurspolitik abzuleiten.

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  • Sell, Friedrich L., 2004. "Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung: Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!," Working Papers in Economics 2004,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ubwwpe:20042
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    Cited by:

    1. Sell, Friedrich L., 2007. "More about economic and non-economic determinants of (mutual) trust and trustworthiness," Working Papers in Economics 2007,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    2. Sell, Friedrich L. & Kermer, Silvio, 2006. "William Poole in der modernen Makroökonomik: Exegese des ursprünglichen Beitrags und seiner Fortentwicklungen für die offene Volkswirtschaft," Working Papers in Economics 2006,3, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    3. Sell, Friedrich L., 2005. "Zins- und Geldmengensteuerung in der offenen Volkswirtschaft: Eine Referenz an William Poole (und zugleich eine Kritik an der "Neuen Keynesianischen Makroökonomik")," Working Papers in Economics 2005,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Währungsordnung; Entwicklung; Tinbergen-Problem; Finanzmarktkrisen; Exchange Rate System; Economic Development; Tinbergen Problem; Financial Crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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