IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Risk Allocation Approach to Optimal Exchange Rate Policy

  • B. Gabriela Mundaca
  • Jon Strand

We derive the optimal exchange rate policy for a small open economy subject to terms-of-trade shocks. Firm owners and workers are risk averse but workers more so. Wages are given or partially indexed in the short run, and capital markets are imperfect. The government sets the exchange rate to allocate risk between workers and owners. With less risk-averse firms, and greater difference in risk aversion between workers and firms, the optimal exchange rate should vary little with pure terms-of-trade shocks but more with general shocks to prices. Optimal exchange rate variation is greater with indexed wages, but is smaller when firms behave monopolistically and when wage taxes (profit taxes) change procyclically (countercyclically) with export prices (import prices). The model gives policy rules for determining optimal variations of the exchange rate, and indicates when it is, and is not, optimal to join a currency union with trading partners, implying zero exchange rate variation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1361.

in new window

Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1361
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hau, Harald, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2002. "Self-validating optimum currency areas," Staff Reports 152, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Magill, Michael & Shafer, Wayne, 1991. "Incomplete markets," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 30, pages 1523-1614 Elsevier.
  7. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-59, March.
  8. Glick, Reuven & Wihlborg, Clas, 1990. "Real exchange rate effects of monetary shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 267-290, May.
  9. Huizinga, H.P., 1997. "Real exchange rate misalignment and redistribution," Other publications TiSEM b6eeddf2-33ae-4e5e-ab1d-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Shapiro, Matthew D & Slemrod, Joel, 1995. "Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 274-83, March.
  12. Varian, Hal R., 1980. "Redistributive taxation as social insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 49-68, August.
  13. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0022, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  14. Aizenman, Joshua, 1994. "Monetary and Real Shocks, Productive Capacity and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(244), pages 407-34, November.
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
  16. Russell W. Cooper & Hubert Kempf, 2002. "Overturning Mundell: fiscal policy in a monetary union," Staff Report 311, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1982. "A Comparison of Exchange Rate Regimes in the Presence of Imperfect Capital Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(2), pages 365-88, June.
  18. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Rankin, Neil, 1995. "Nominal Rigidity and Monetary Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Joshua Aizenman & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1984. "Optimal Wage Indexation, Foreign-Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Hamada, Koichi & Sakurai, Makoto, 1978. "International Transmission of Stagflation under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 877-95, October.
  22. Alan Sutherland, . "Monetary and Real Shocks and the Optimal Target Zone," Discussion Papers 92/7, Department of Economics, University of York.
  23. Bertola, Giuseppe & Koeniger, Winfried, 2004. "Consumption Smoothing and the Structure of Labor and Credit Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 1052, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  24. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. repec:oup:qjecon:v:84:y:1970:i:2:p:197-216 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
  30. repec:oup:qjecon:v:98:y:1983:i:3:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Razin, Assaf, 1989. "Exchange-rate management viewed as tax policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 761-781, April.
  32. Laurence Seidman, 2001. "Reviving Fiscal Policy," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 17-42, May.
  33. Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 959-973, September.
  34. repec:oup:qjecon:v:97:y:1982:i:1:p:43-66 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Buiter, Willem H., 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Artis, M J & Currie, D A, 1981. "Monetary Targets and the Exchange Rate: A Case for Conditional Targets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 176-200, Supplemen.
  37. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  39. Buiter, Willem H, 1997. "The Economic Case for Monetary Union in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 10-35, Supplemen.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.