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Could the Exchange Rate Regime Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?

This study intends to determine the relationship existing between the exchange rate regime and real volatility. After revising the theoretical and empirical results of previous research, it is proposed a new methodology that corrects deficiencies of previous empirical papers. The results show non-neutrality of the exchange rate regime. Particularly, it is found that the more rigid the regime is the grater real volatility will be. Even when it is performed an exchange rate regime classification that allows a comparison between consistent pegging and consistent floating, the former has a higher volatility. Countries with “fear of floating†behavior exhibit lower volatility than consistent pegs

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 309.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:309
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  1. Alberto Alesina & Alexander F. Wagner, 2006. "Choosing (and Reneging on) Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 770-799, 06.
  2. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Sebastian Edwards, 1992. "Exchange Rates as Nominal Anchors," NBER Working Papers 4246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 8274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Michael Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," Working Papers 0022, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  14. Cevdet Denizer & Murat F. Lyigun & Ann L. Owen, 2000. "Finance and macroeconomic volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 670, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin, 1996. "Securing Stability and Growth in a Shock Prone Region: The Policy Challenge for Latin America," Research Department Publications 4020, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  16. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  17. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Weber, Warren E, 1981. "Output Variability under Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 733-51, August.
  19. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-55, December.
  20. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1976. "The Relative Stability of Alternative Exchange Rate Systems in the Presence of Random Disturbances," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 29-50, February.
  21. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  22. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
  23. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  24. Pritchett, Lant, 1998. "Patterns of economic growth : hills, plateaus, mountains, and plains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1947, The World Bank.
  25. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Lane, P, 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey," Trinity Economics Papers 993, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  27. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "Monetary Regime Choices for a Semi-Open Country," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-036, University of California at Berkeley.
  28. Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2006. "Price Rigidity and the Selection of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, January.
  29. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Flows and Crisis Prevention," NBER Working Papers 8529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Flood, Robert P, 1979. "Capital Mobility and the Choice of Exchange Rate System," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(2), pages 405-16, June.
  32. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  33. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
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