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Macroeconomic Volatility under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Turkey


  • Saadet Kasman
  • Duygu Ayhan


After the collapse of fixed exchange rate regime in 1980, alternative regimes were adopted in Turkey. The "crawling peg" regime (1980-81) is followed by "managed float" (1981-99), "crawling peg" (1999-2001) and "free floating" (2001-) in "de jure" classification. This paper examines the behavior of the macroeconomic variables in terms of volatility across exchange rate regimes in "de jure " and "de facto" classifications, using monthly data over the period 1980-2006. We find a strong GARCH effect for the real exchange rate, inflation and foreign exchange reserves. The findings of the t-test indicate that the variations in the mean of most of the macroeconomic variables are not statistically different from each other under "de facto" regimes The results of this study suggest the existence of "de facto" regime neutrality.

Suggested Citation

  • Saadet Kasman & Duygu Ayhan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 37-58.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:37-58

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    Cited by:

    1. dogru, bulent, 2015. "The Exchange Rate Uncertaınty On Foreıgn Trade: Evıdence From Panel Coıntegratıon Analysıs For Turkey," MPRA Paper 66635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bulent GULOGLU, "undated". "Exports and Volatility of Exchange Rate Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes:The Case of Turkey," EcoMod2008 23800047, EcoMod.

    More about this item


    Exchange Rate Regimes; Macroeconomic Variables; Exchange Rate Volatility; Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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