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Are Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes more Volatile? Panel GARCH Evidence for the G7 and Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Rodolfo Cermeno
  • Maria Eugenia Sanin

    (EPEE - Centre d'Etudes des Politiques Economiques - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne)

Abstract

This paper investigates empirically the relationship between exchange rate (ER) regimes and volatility of real exchange rate depreciation (RERD), comparing the G7 and 17 Latin American (LA17) countries, during 1970-2010. We estimate a panel autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) errors and regime-specific effects on both the conditional mean and conditional variance. For the G7, we find that, relative to the fixed ER regime, only the freely floating regime shows higher RERD volatility; under the managed floating regime the RERD is equally volatile and under the crawling peg it is actually less volatile. Instead, in the case of the LA17, more flexible ER regimes are associated with more volatile RERD rates, with higher volatility under the managed floating regime than under the crawling peg and with extremely high volatility under the freely falling ER regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodolfo Cermeno & Maria Eugenia Sanin, 2015. "Are Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes more Volatile? Panel GARCH Evidence for the G7 and Latin America," Post-Print hal-02878045, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02878045
    DOI: 10.1111/rode.12143
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    Cited by:

    1. Valera, Harold Glenn & Ashok, Mishra & Valerien, Pede & Takashi, Yamano & David, Dawe, 2023. "Domestic and International Impacts of Rice Export Restrictions: The Recent Case of Indian Non-Basmati Rice," MPRA Paper 123305, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2024.
    2. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    3. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.
    4. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos & M. Ege Yazgan, 2021. "Revisiting the link between output growth and volatility: panel GARCH analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 743-771, August.
    5. Mamman, Suleiman O. & Wang, Zhanqin & Iliyasu, Jamilu, 2023. "Commonality in BRICS stock markets’ reaction to global economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from a panel GARCH model with cross sectional dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    6. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    7. Asai, Manabu, 2023. "Feasible Panel GARCH Models: Variance-Targeting Estimation and Empirical Application," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 23-38.

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