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Effective Real Exchange Rates and Irrelevant Nominal Exchange-rate Regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Kent

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Rafic Naja

    (McKinsey and Company, Inc.)

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the short-term volatility of the effective Real Exchange Rate (RER) and the degree of flexibility of the nominal exchange rate. Existing evidence demonstrates that the short-term variance of bilateral RERs is on average about 12 times higher under floating nominal exchange rate regimes than under fixed regimes. By comparison, based on pooled results across a set of countries with low and stable inflation and stable growth rates from 1978 to 1994, the effective RER is only twice as volatile under floating regimes compared with fixed regimes. Although this difference is statistically significant, results within countries show that for most countries there was no significant increase in effective RER volatility when moving to more flexible exchange-rate regimes. Surprisingly, there are even some countries for which volatility is lower under more flexible exchange-rate regimes. In part our findings reflect the fact that effective RERs are an average of bilateral RERs. Also, we suggest that there is a difference between a fixed exchange-rate regime during Bretton Woods and a fixed exchange-rate regime post-Bretton Woods.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Kent & Rafic Naja, 1998. "Effective Real Exchange Rates and Irrelevant Nominal Exchange-rate Regimes," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9811, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9811
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1998/pdf/rdp9811.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    7. Black, Stanley W., 1986. "Real exchange rates and deviations from purchasing power parity under floating exchange rates A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 215-220, January.
    8. Savvides, Andreas, 1996. "CFA Franc Zone Membership and Exchange Rate Variability," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(1), pages 52-68, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Carrera & Guillermo Vuletin, 2003. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes on Real Exchange Rate Volatility. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] c67, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    2. Ganguly, Srideep & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2010. "Nominal exchange rate volatility, relative price volatility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 840-856, September.
    3. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    4. Christian Dreger & Eric Girardin, 2007. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Long Run Properties of Real Exchange Rates?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 746, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence from the OECD Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2004-22, FEDEA.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2004_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Musonda, Anthony, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-Traditional Exports Performance: Zambia, 1965–1999," MPRA Paper 26952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2019. "Political Risk and Real Exchange Rate: What Can We Learn from Recent Developments in Panel Data Econometrics for Emerging and Developing Countries?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 741-762, December.
    9. Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2010. "Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 139-168, February.
    10. Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2009. "On Nominal and Real Devaluations Relation: An Econometric Evidence for Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    11. Grossmann, Axel & Love, Inessa & Orlov, Alexei G., 2014. "The dynamics of exchange rate volatility: A panel VAR approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-27.
    12. Saadet Kasman & Duygu Ayhan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 37-58.
    13. An, Jiyoun & Park, Bokyeong, 2016. "External adjustment and trading partners’ exchange rate regimes," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 47-54.
    14. Boubellouta Bilal & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Comparing the Relationship Between Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates During the Last Two Devaluations in Algeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1421-1440, December.
    15. Abdulkadir Abdulrashid Rafindadi & Zarinah Yusof, 2014. "An Econometric Estimation and Prediction of the Effects of Nominal Devaluation on Real Devaluation: Does the Marshal-Lerner (M-L) Assumptions Fits in Nigeria?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 819-835.
    16. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2006. "Real effective exchange rate volatility and growth: A framework to measure advantages of flexibility vs. costs of volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1149-1169, April.
    17. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal exchange-rate regime; real effective exchange rates; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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