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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Real Sector: a Sectoral Analysis of CEE Countries

  • Przemek Kowalski
  • Wojciech Paczynski
  • Lukasz Rawdanowicz

This paper analyses the impact of exchange rate regimes on the real sector. While most studies in this field have so far concentrated on aggregate variables, we pursue a sectoral approach distinguishing between the tradable and nontradable sectors. Firstly, we present a survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. This demonstrates that evaluations of exchange rate regimes and their impact on the real economy are largely dependant on specific assumptions concerning, in particular, the parameters of a utility function, the nature of the price adjustment process and the characteristics of analysed shocks. Secondly, we conduct an empirical analysis of the behaviour of the tradable and nontradable sectors under different exchange rate regimes for seven Central and Eastern European countries. We find no firm evidence of a differential impact of given exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of output and prices in the two sectors. We proffer a conceptual and technical interpretation of this.

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Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0248.

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Length: 42 Pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0248
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  1. L�cio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-054/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Ganelli, Giovanni & Lane, Philip R., 2002. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension," CEPR Discussion Papers 3540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Leland B. Yeager, 2000. "Exchange Rates between What Sorts of Currencies?," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 20(1), Spring/Su.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lane, P, 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: A Survey," Trinity Economics Papers 993, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  6. Hau, Harald, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 072000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Cedric Tille, 2002. "How valuable is exchange rate flexibility? Optimal monetary policy under sectoral shocks," Staff Reports 147, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Hau, Harald, 2000. "Exchange rate determination: The role of factor price rigidities and nontradeables," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 421-447, April.
  10. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  11. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  12. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  13. Dehejia, Vivek & Rowe, Nicholas, 2000. "Macroeconomic Stabilization: Fixed Exchange Rates Vs Inflation Targeting Vs Price Level Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 2460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2002. "Why are business cycles alike across exchange-rate regimes?," Working Papers 02-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  15. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  16. Stockman, Alan C., 1999. "Choosing an exchange-rate system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1483-1498, October.
  17. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union; What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  19. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  20. Lucio Vinhas de Souza, 2002. "Integrated monetary and exchange rate frameworks: are there empirical differences?," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2002-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2002.
  21. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  22. repec:cto:journl:v:20:y:2000:i:1:p:115-122 is not listed on IDEAS
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