Structural Breaks in Volatility: Evidence from the OECD Real Exchange Rates
This paper analyses whether volatility changes in the real exchange rates (RERs) of the OECD industrial countries are associated with a specific nominal exchange rate regime. To that end, we examine RER behaviour during the period 1960-2003, thereby covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on Hansen’s (1997) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (1993) and Andrews and Ploberger (1994). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. For most countries in our sample, there is evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of the nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jorge Carrera & Guillermo Vuletin, 2003. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes on Real Exchange Rate Volatility. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c67, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange Rate Choices," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1877, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Grilli, Vittorio & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1991. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the real exchange rate : Evidence from the United States and Great Britain, 1885-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 191-212, April.
- Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993.
"Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Maximo Camacho, 2004. "Vector smooth transition regression models for US GDP and the composite index of leading indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 173-196.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Hong Liang, 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility; Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 98/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
- Christopher Kent & Rafic Naja, 1998. "Effective Real Exchange Rates and Irrelevant Nominal Exchange-rate Regimes," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9811, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Richard N. Cooper, 1999. "Exchange rate choices," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 43(Jun), pages 99-136.
- John H. Rogers, 1995. "Real shocks and real exchange rates in really long-term data," International Finance Discussion Papers 493, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2004-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmen Arias)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.