IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v13y2016i4d10.1007_s10368-015-0312-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility of industrial production growth and characteristics of optimal currency areas in EU-12 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Valentyna Ozimkovska

    (University of Kiel)

Abstract

This paper investigates how the introduction of the euro in the EU-12 countries influenced the short-term volatility of output, measured by the volatility of industrial production growth. It assesses whether more favorable criteria of optimum currency areas keep the volatility of industrial production growth constant. Finally, it investigates the impact of the global financial crisis on the volatility of industrial production growth and on the characteristics of the optimum currency areas of the EU-12 countries. This paper uses the Chow breakpoint test and the Quandt-Andrews test to check for structural breaks in the volatility obtained from ARMA (p,q) and AR(p)-EGARCH(1,1) models. The results suggest that after the introduction of the euro, the volatility of industrial production growth has not significantly changed in Austria, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain. However, the volatility of industrial production growth did increase in Finland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg and Portugal after the adoption of the common currency. In Germany and Greece the volatility of industrial production increased after 2002 and 1997 respectively. This observation cannot be connected directly to the introduction of the euro. After the beginning of the financial crisis, the volatility of industrial production growth increased in all EU-12 countries except France and Greece. Criteria for optimum currency areas fail to explain why the volatility of some EU-12 countries remained unchanged after the introduction of the euro and after the start of the financial crisis. Those countries, where the volatility of industrial production has not changed significantly after the introduction of the euro, had a long history of fixed or pegged exchange rate regimes. This group of countries recovered faster after the financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentyna Ozimkovska, 2016. "Volatility of industrial production growth and characteristics of optimal currency areas in EU-12 countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 563-591, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:13:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-015-0312-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-015-0312-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-015-0312-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-015-0312-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bas Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Cindy Moons, 2008. "Accession to the euro-area: a stylized analysis using a NK model," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-24, July.
    2. Muhammad Jamil & Erich W. Streissler & Robert M. Kunst, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and its Impact on Industrial Production, Before and After the Introduction of Common Currency in Europe," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 85-109.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    4. Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April.
    5. Klaus Weyerstrass & Bas Aarle & Marcus Kappler & Atilim Seymen, 2011. "Business Cycle Synchronisation with(in) the Euro Area: in Search of a ‘Euro Effect’," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 427-446, July.
    6. Mary Amiti, 1999. "Specialization patterns in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(4), pages 573-593, December.
    7. Golub, Stephen S., 1990. "International capital mobility: net versus gross stocks and flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 424-439, December.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    9. Montiel, Peter J, 1994. "Capital Mobility in Developing Countries: Some Measurement Issues and Empirical Estimates," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(3), pages 311-350, September.
    10. Helg, Rodolfo & Manasse, Paolo & Monacelli, Tommaso & Rovelli, Riccardo, 1995. "How much (a)symmetry in Europe? Evidence from industrial sectors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 1017-1041, May.
    11. Paul Krugman, 2012. "Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, pages 439-448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    13. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    14. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    15. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    16. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    18. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    19. Masson, Paul R & Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Common Currency Areas and Currency Unions: An Analysis of the Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 617, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Davies, Stephen & Lyons, Bruce, 1996. "Industrial Organization in the European Union: Structure, Strategy, and the Competitive Mechanism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198289739.
    21. Charles Goodhart, 2007. "Currency Unions: Some Lessons from the Euro-Zone," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 2010. "Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 139-168, February.
    2. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "The great moderation: updated evidence with joint tests for multiple structural changes in variance and persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1193-1218, March.
    4. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
    5. Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Wension Vincent, YAO, 2004. "Business Cycle Turning Points : Mixed-Frequency Data with Structural Breaks," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2004024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. A. Morales-Zumaquero & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2008. "Macroeconomic instability in the European monetary system?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 965-983.
    7. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2005. "On the Structural Stability of U.S. GDP," Working Paper 214, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jan 2005.
    8. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    9. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    10. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    11. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto & Jing Zhou, 2020. "Testing jointly for structural changes in the error variance and coefficients of a linear regression model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(3), pages 1019-1057, July.
    12. Kurokawa, Yoshinori & Pang, Jiaren & Tang, Yao, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and wage comovements in a Ricardian model with money," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 96-109.
    13. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
    14. Esteve Vicente & Prats Maria A., 2021. "Structural Breaks and Explosive Behavior in the Long-Run: The Case of Australian Real House Prices, 1870–2020," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 72-84, January.
    15. Lahura, Erick & Vega, Marco, 2013. "Regímenes cambiarios y desempeño macroeconómico: Una evaluación de la literatura," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 101-119.
    16. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    17. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Camacho Maximo & Perez Quiros Gabriel, 2007. "Jump-and-Rest Effect of U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-39, December.
    19. JONATHAN McCARTHY & EGON ZAKRAJSEK, 2007. "Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 591-613, March.
    20. Alaa Abi Morshed & Elena Andreou & Otilia Boldea, 2018. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-39, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro; Structural break; Volatility; Industrial production; Theory of optimum currency areas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:13:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-015-0312-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.