IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/26952.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-Traditional Exports Performance: Zambia, 1965–1999

Author

Listed:
  • Musonda, Anthony

Abstract

This study estimated an error correction model of the impact of real effective exchange rate volatility on the performance of non-traditional exports for Zambia between 1965 and 1999. Using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) measure of real exchange rate volatility, the findings show that exchange rate volatility depresses exports in both the short run and the long run. The results also suggest that supportive macroeconomic factors are important in enhancing non-traditional exports in the country. This requires packaging a set of incentives aimed at removing anti-export bias policies so as to promote exports, particularly of non-traditional products, given their standing in the economic growth agenda for the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Musonda, Anthony, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-Traditional Exports Performance: Zambia, 1965–1999," MPRA Paper 26952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26952
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26952/1/MPRA_paper_26952.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Kabir Hassan & David R. Tufte, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and aggregate export growth in Bangladesh," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 189-201, February.
    2. Bates, Robert H & Collier, Paul, 1995. "The Politics and Economics of Policy Reform in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 4(1), pages 115-143, May.
    3. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    4. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    5. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    6. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-5.
    7. Sekkat, Khalid & Varoudakis, Aristomene, 2000. "Exchange rate management and manufactured exports in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 237-253, February.
    8. Grobar, Lisa Morris, 1993. "The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on LDC manufactured exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 367-376, August.
    9. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 446-463, September.
    10. Pinar Ozbay, 1999. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on exports a case study on Turkey," Discussion Papers 9903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    12. McKenzie, Michael D. & Brooks, Robert D., 1997. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-87, April.
    13. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    14. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    15. Gonzaga, Gustavo M. & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1997. "Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 77-100, October.
    16. Hong Liang, 1998. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility; Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 98/147, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    18. Agathe Cote, "undated". "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
    19. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Cristina Pensa, 1997. "Exchange-Rate Volatility, Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and International Trade," Working Papers 43, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; volatility; GARCH; error correction model; nontraditional exports;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26952. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.