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Pegging emerging currencies in the face of dollar swings

Author

Listed:
  • Virginie Coudert

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to study ruptures of exchange rate pegs by focusing on the fluctuations of the anchor currency. We test for the hypothesis that currencies linked to the USD are more likely to loosen their peg when the USD is appreciating, while sticking to it otherwise. To this end, we estimate smooth-transition regression models for a sample of 28 emerging currencies over the 1994-2011 period. Our findings show that while the real effective exchange rates of most of these countries tend to co-move with that of the USD in times of depreciation, this relationship is frequently reversed when the US currency appreciates over a certain threshold.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Pegging emerging currencies in the face of dollar swings," Post-Print hal-01411739, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01411739
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Gomes, 2016. "On the impact of dollar movements on oil currencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Assessing Asian Exchange Rates Coordination under Regional Currency Basket System," AMSE Working Papers 1345, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Sep 2013.
    3. Baaziz, Yosra & Labidi, Moez & Lahiani, Amine, 2013. "Does the South African Reserve Bank follow a nonlinear interest rate reaction function?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 272-282.
    4. Gabriel Gomes, 2014. "Is the oil currency – oil price nexus affected by dollar swings?," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-53, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Exchange rate coordination in Asia under regional currency basket systems," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2913-2929.
    6. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    8. Narcisa Roxana Mosteanu, 2017. "Home Currency Pegged Into Euro – Possible Solution For Romanian’S Economy," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 6(3), pages 1-32, august.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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