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Testing Nonlinearities between Brazilian Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatilities

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  • Albuquerque, Christiane Rocha
  • Portugal, Marcelo S.

Abstract

There are few studies, directly addressing exchange rate and inflation volatilities, and lack of consensus among them. However, this kind of study is necessary, especially under an inflation-targeting system where the monetary authority must know well price behavior. This article analyses the relation between exchange rate and inflation volatilities using a bivariate GARCH model, and therefore modeling conditional volatilities, fact largely unexplored by the literature. We find a semi-concave relation between those series, and this nonlinearity may explain their apparently disconnection under a floating exchange rate system. The article also shows that traditional tests, with non-conditional volatilities, are not robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Albuquerque, Christiane Rocha & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2006. "Testing Nonlinearities between Brazilian Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatilities," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(4), February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:60:y:2006:i:4:a:963
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    1. Correa, Arnildo da Silva & Minella, André, 2010. "Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: A Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(3), September.
    2. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ojonugwa Usman & Osama Mohammed Elsalih, 2018. "Testing the Effects of Real Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Unemployment in Brazil," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    4. Mohini GUPTA & Purwa SRIVASTAVA & Amritkant MISHRA & Malayaranjan SAHOO, 2021. "Time-varying volatility spillover of foreign exchange rate in three Asian markets: Based on DCC-GARCH approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(629), W), pages 105-120, Winter.
    5. Matos, Paulo & Beviláqua, Giovanni & Filho, Jaime, 2012. "Previsão do câmbio real-dólar sob um arcabouço de apreçamento de ativos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(3), October.
    6. Guillermo Benavides & Isela Elizabeth Téllez-León & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2015. "Effects of Volatility of the Exchange Rate on Inflation Expectations and Growth Prospects in Mexico (2002-2014)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 63-78, November.

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