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Foreign Debt and Fear of Floating: A Theoretical Exploration

  • Michael Bleaney
  • F. Gulcin Ozkan

This paper explores the relationship between the denomination of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime. Unlike indexed domestic debt, foreign debt is subject to valuation effects from real exchange rate shocks. In a standard set-up, where a peg functions only as a nominal anchor, more foreign debt makes pegging less attractive, because it increases the value of a flexible exchange rate as a shock absorber. This result can be reversed if we incorporate the stylized fact that pegs have lower real exchange rate volatility, and if external shocks are sufficiently large relative to domestic shocks.

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File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/economics/documents/discussion-papers/08-03.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 08/03.

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Handle: RePEc:not:notecp:08/03
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, .
  3. Falcetti, Elisabetta & Missale, Alessandro, 2002. "Public debt indexation and denomination with an independent central bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1825-1850, December.
  4. Bovenberg, A.L. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J., 1997. "Central Bank independence and public debt policy," Other publications TiSEM d1fc1375-507c-445b-9b38-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  5. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Bovenberg, A.L., 1995. "Does monetary unification lead to excessive debt accumulation," Discussion Paper 1995-112, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Berger, Helge & Jensen, Henrik & Schjelderup, Guttorm, 2001. "To peg or not to peg?: A simple model of exchange rate regime choice in small economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 161-167, November.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA.
  10. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  11. Hasan, Shahriar & Wallace, Myles, 1996. "Real exchange rate volatility and exchange rate regimes: Evidence from long-term data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 67-73, July.
  12. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Cook, David, 2004. "Monetary policy in emerging markets: Can liability dollarization explain contractionary devaluations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1155-1181, September.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  16. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
  17. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
  18. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 9654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2008. "Balance sheet effects and the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 297-310.
  21. Ozkan, F Gulcin, 2000. " Who Wants an Independent Central Bank? Monetary Policy-Making and Politics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(4), pages 621-43, December.
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