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Dollarization: Analytical Issues

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  • Roberto Chang
  • Andres Velasco

Abstract

This paper discusses major analytical aspects of dollarization and their practical implications. We develop a simple model to stress that dollarization implies the loss of independent monetary policy and of seigniorage, yet the significance of such losses can only be evaluated in conjunction with assumptions about the policymaking process. If the government is benevolent and has no credibility problems, dollarization causes a fall in welfare, which can be measured by the implied seigniorage loss or using Mundellian optimal currency area criteria. However, outcomes are rather different if credibility is absent and dollarization can serve as a commitment device: the welfare impact of dollarization is ambiguous, and seigniorage measures and Mundellian criteria may be misleading indicators of the true cost of dollarization. We also evaluate other implications of dollarization, such as those related to last resort lending and financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "Dollarization: Analytical Issues," NBER Working Papers 8838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1978. "On the Time Consistency of Optimal Policy in a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1411-1428, November.
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    4. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
    5. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Pablo E. Guidotti, 1993. "On the Flexibility of Monetary Policy: The Case of the Optimal Inflation Tax," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 667-687.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roc Armenter & Martin Bodenstein, 2005. "Does the time inconsistency problem make flexible exchange rates look worse than you think?," Staff Reports 230, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez, 2013. "Choosing and Assessing Exchange Rate Regimes: a Survey of the Literature," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 28(2), pages 37-61, October.
    3. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "Exploring the Implications of Official Dollarization on Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 200, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. William C. Gruben & Darryl McLeod, 2004. "Currency competition and inflation convergence," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2005. "¿Es la dolarización oficial una opción real para las economías emergentes?
      [Is Official Dollarization a real option for emerging countries?]
      ," MPRA Paper 54353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "Floating, Official Dollarization, and Macroeconomic Volatility:An Analysis for the Chilean Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 249, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    8. Chiţu, Livia, 2012. "Was unofficial dollarisation/euroisation an amplifier of the 'Great Recession' of 2007-09 in emerging economies," Working Paper Series 1473, European Central Bank.
    9. John Duffy & Maxim Nikitin, 2004. "Dollarization Traps," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 196, Econometric Society.
    10. Livia Chitu, 2013. "Was Unofficial Dollarisation/Euroisation an Amplifier of the ‘Great Recession’ of 2007–2009 in Emerging Economies?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(2), pages 233-265, June.
    11. Pablo Druck & Eduardo Morón & Ernesto Stein, 2001. "The Twin Risks in the Dollarization Debate: Country and Devaluation Risks," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 198, Universidad del CEMA.
    12. Volker Nitsch, 2004. "Have a Break, Have a ... National Currency: When Do Monetary Unions Fall Apart?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1113, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    14. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    15. Roberto Chang, 2000. "Dollarization: a scorecard," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-12.
    16. Sell, Friedrich L., 2004. "Währungspolitik im Dienste von Entwicklung : Immer noch ein Forschungsprogramm!," Working Papers in Economics 2004,2, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
    17. Lange, Carsten & Sauer, Christine, 2005. "Dollarization in Latin America: seigniorage costs and policy implications," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 662-679, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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