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How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

  • Asici, Ahmet Atil
  • Ivanova, Nadezhda
  • Wyplosz, Charles

This paper improves upon the recently developed literature on exits from fixed exchange rate regimes in three ways: 1) It allows for two indicators for post-exit macroeconomic conditions, the change in the exchange rate and the change in the output gap; 2) it tests whether the distinction between orderly and disorderly exit is statistically justified, and concludes that it is not; 3) it deals with the sample selection problem. The results, subject to extensive sensitivity analysis, suggest that post-exits are better when de-pegging occur in good macroeconomic conditions – an unnatural move for most policy-makers – when world interest rates decline and in the presence of capital controls. Importantly, ‘good’ macroeconomic policies do not seem to help with post-exit performance.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5141.

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Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5141
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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
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