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Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

Author

Listed:
  • Kosta Josifidis

    (Faculty of Economics Subotica - Novi Sad University)

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emilija Beker Pucar

    (Faculty of Economics Subotica - Novi Sad University)

Abstract

The paper explores (former) transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

Suggested Citation

  • Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia," Post-Print halshs-00404729, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00404729
    DOI: 10.2298/PAN0902199J
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00404729
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    Cited by:

    1. Đorđe Đukić & Mališa Đukić, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis and the Behaviour of Short-Term Interest Rates International and Serbian Aspects," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(4), pages 491-506, December.
    2. Zorica Mladenović & Kosta Josifidis & Slađana Srdić, 2013. "The Purchasing Power Parity in Emerging Europe: Empirical Results Based on Two-Break Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 179-202, April.
    3. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Current Account Adjustments and Real Exchange Rates in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 48901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. El-Shagi, Makram & Tochkov, Kiril, 2022. "Divisia monetary aggregates for Russia: Money demand, GDP nowcasting and the price puzzle," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    5. Rajmund Mirdala, 2013. "Real Output and Prices Adjustments Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1064, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    6. Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov, 2018. "Volatility Spillover Effect between Stock and Exchange Rate in Oil Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 321-326.
    7. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In The Central European Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
    8. Rajmund Mirdala & Júlia Ďurčová, 2016. "Priepustnosť menových kurzov nových členských krajín Európskej unie [Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in New EU Member Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 377-404.
    9. Rajmund Mirdala, 2009. "Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in the Selected EMU Candidate Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 359-377, September.
    10. Hsing, Yu & Hsieh, Wen-jen, 2010. "Responses of Real Output in Serbia to the Financial and Global Economic Conditions," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 107-114, September.
    11. Novák, Zsuzsanna, 2014. "Monetáris politika, infláció és gazdasági növekedés Kelet-Közép- és Délkelet-Európában [Monetary policy, inflation and economic growth in Central and South Eastern Europe]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 923-942.
    12. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Selected CEE Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Anthony Msafiri Nyangarika & Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov & Bao-jun Tang, 2018. "Correlation of Oil Prices and Gross Domestic Product in Oil Producing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 42-48.
    14. Bucevska Vesna & Mojanoski Goran, 2018. "Identifying the determinants that cause the value movements of currencies Denar, Kuna and Dinar," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 78-85, November.
    15. Jensen Camilla & Rastenienė Aušrytė, 2016. "Lithuanian Exporters in the Financial Crisis," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(2), pages 118-138, February.
    16. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Interest Rates Determination and Crisis Puzzle (Empirical Evidence from the European Transition Economies)," MPRA Paper 43756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Macroeconomic Aspects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in the Central European Countries," MPRA Paper 40910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ahmet Ugur & Yusuf Ekrem Akbas & Mehmet Senturk, 2014. "Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(51), pages 111-136, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate targeting; Inflation targeting; Intermediate exchange rate regimes; Monetary transmission channels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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