Responses of Real Output in Serbia to the Financial and Global Economic Conditions
Applying and extending Taylor (1993, 1999) and Romer (2000, 2006), this paper examines output fluctuations for Serbia based on a simultaneous equation model consisting of the open-economy IS function, the monetary policy function, and uncovered interest parity. The GARCH(1,0) model is employed because the residual variance is affected by the past variance. Real GDP is positively affected by the real stock price and real government deficit and negatively influenced by expected real depreciation of the dinar, the world real interest rate, and the inflation rate. There are significant seasonal effects. Therefore, a healthy stock market, a stronger dinar, a lower world real interest rate, a lower inflation rate, and an active fiscal policy will play important roles in the recovery of the Serbian economy.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172|
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yu Hsing, 2005. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Latvian output and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 467-471.
- repec:hal:journl:halshs-00404729_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
- David H. Romer, 2000.
"Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
- David Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," NBER Working Papers 7461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giorgio Dominese, 2006. "How To Prepare the EU Integration: Banking System, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate in Macedonia," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 13(2), pages 378-392, July.
- Nikola Fabris, 2006. "Inflation Targeting With Special Review on Appliction in Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 53(4), pages 389-405, December.
- Rostowski, Jacek, 1998. "Macroeconomic Instability in Post-Communist Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290483.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:3:p:107-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.