IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2010i3p107-114.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Responses of Real Output in Serbia to the Financial and Global Economic Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Hsing, Yu

    (College of Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, LA 70402, USA.)

  • Hsieh, Wen-jen

    (Department of Economics, College of Social Sciences, National Cheng Kung University, No.1, University Road, Tainan City, Taiwan)

Abstract

Applying and extending Taylor (1993, 1999) and Romer (2000, 2006), this paper examines output fluctuations for Serbia based on a simultaneous equation model consisting of the open-economy IS function, the monetary policy function, and uncovered interest parity. The GARCH(1,0) model is employed because the residual variance is affected by the past variance. Real GDP is positively affected by the real stock price and real government deficit and negatively influenced by expected real depreciation of the dinar, the world real interest rate, and the inflation rate. There are significant seasonal effects. Therefore, a healthy stock market, a stronger dinar, a lower world real interest rate, a lower inflation rate, and an active fiscal policy will play important roles in the recovery of the Serbian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsing, Yu & Hsieh, Wen-jen, 2010. "Responses of Real Output in Serbia to the Financial and Global Economic Conditions," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 107-114, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:3:p:107-114
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_10/rjef3_10_6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00404729_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 199-226.
    4. Yu Hsing, 2005. "Impacts of macroeconomic policies on the Latvian output and policy implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 467-471.
    5. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
    6. Nikola Fabris, 2006. "Inflation Targeting With Special Review on Appliction in Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 53(4), pages 389-405, December.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    8. Kosta Josifidis & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2009. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes Changes: The Cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 199-226, June.
    9. Giorgio Dominese, 2006. "How To Prepare the EU Integration: Banking System, Monetary Policy, and Exchange Rate in Macedonia," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 13(2), pages 378-392, July.
    10. Rostowski, Jacek, 1998. "Macroeconomic Instability in Post-Communist Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290483.
    11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    2. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    3. Yu Hsing, 2020. "Impacts of Real Depreciation and Appreciation on Aggregate Output in Taiwan," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 123-130, March.
    4. Peter Bofinger & Eric Mayer & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Teaching New Keynesian Open Economy Macroeconomics at the Intermediate Level," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 80-102, January.
    5. Leith, Campbell & Malley, Jim, 2005. "Estimated general equilibrium models for the evaluation of monetary policy in the US and Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2137-2159, November.
    6. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \\"M\\" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    7. Yu Hsing & Minh Q. Huynh, 2019. "Effects of Depreciation and Appreciation of the Vietnamese Dong on Aggregate Output," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(2), pages 45-56, June.
    8. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2001. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macroeconomic model," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 83-112.
    9. Bonomo, Marco Antonio Cesar & Brito, Ricardo D., 2002. "Regras Monetárias e Dinâmica Macroeconômica no Brasil: Uma Abordagem de Expectativas Racionais," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(4), October.
    10. Yu Hsing & A. M. M. Jamal & Wen-jen Hsieh, 2009. "Application of the monetary policy function to output fluctuations in Bangladesh," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2113-2122.
    11. Jim Granato & Melody Lo & M. C. Sunny Wong, 2007. "A note on Romer's openness-inflation relation: the responsiveness of AS and AD to economic openness and monetary policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 191-197.
    12. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2000. "Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
    14. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley & Luis F. Cabrera Castellanos, 2004. "Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo: el caso de Nicaragua," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 407-418, octubre-d.
    15. Weymark, Diana N., 2004. "Economic structure, policy objectives, and optimal interest rate policy at low inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-51, March.
    16. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    19. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Who believes in the Taylor principle? Evidence from the Livingston survey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 96-98.
    21. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy function; uncovered interest parity; exchange rate; world interest rate; inflation rate; government deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:3:p:107-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.