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Regras Monetárias e Dinâmica Macroeconomica no Brasil: uma abordagem de expectativas racionais

Neste artigo estimamos e simulamos um modelo macroeconômico aberto de expectativas racionais (Batini e Haldane [4]) para a economia brasileira, com o objetivo de identificar as características das regras monetárias ótimas e a dinâmica de curto prazo gerada por elas. Trabalhamos com uma versão forward-Iooking e uma versão backward-Iooking a fim de comparar o desempenho de três parametrizações de regras monetárias, que diferem em relação à variável de inflação: a tradicional regra de Taylor, que se baseia na inflação passada; uma regra que combina inflação e taxa de câmbio real (ver Ball [5]) e uma regra que utiliza previsões de inflação (ver Bank af England [3]). Resolvemos o modelo numericamente e contruímos fronteiras eficientes em relação às variâncias do produto e da infiação por simulações estocásticas, para choques i.i.d. ou correlacionados. Os conjuntos de regras ótimas para as duas versões são qualitativamente distintos. Devido à incerteza quanto ao grau de forward-Iookingness sugerimos a escolha das regras pela soma das funções objetivos nas duas versões. Concluímos que as regras escolhidas com base neste critério têm perdas moderadas em relação às regras ótimas, mas previnem perdas maiores que resultariam da escolha da regra com base na versão errada. Finalmente calculamos funções de resposta a impulso dos dois modelos para algumas regras selecionadas, a fim de avaliar como diferentes regras monetárias alteram a dinâmica de curto prazo dos dois modelos.

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Paper provided by Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa in its series Insper Working Papers with number wpe_11.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_11
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  1. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
  2. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  6. Bonomo, Marco Antonio Cesar & Carrasco, Vinícius & Moreira, Humberto, 2003. "Aprendizado Evolucionário, Inércia Inflacionária e Recessão em Desinflações Monetárias," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(4), October.
  7. Amato, Jeffery D. & Laubach, Thomas, 2003. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 791-831, October.
  8. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  9. Simon Hall & Chris Salmon & Tony Yates & Nicoletta Batini, 1999. "Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules - An illustration for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 96, Bank of England.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Recent developments in the analysis of monetary policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-12.
  11. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. David Blake, 1991. "The Estimation of Rational Expectations Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 31-70, September.
  13. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  14. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  15. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  17. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  19. M. R. Wickens, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67.
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