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Regras Monetárias e Dinâmica Macroeconomica no Brasil: uma abordagem de expectativas racionais

In this article, we estimate and simulate an open rational expectations macro model for the Brazilian economy. Our goal is to identify the features of optimal monetary rules and their consequences for the model's short-term dynamics. We compare the performance of three parametrizations of the monetary rule that differ with respect to the inflation variable: a Taylor rule, which is based on past inflation; a rule that combines past inflation and real exchange rate (Ball [3]); and a rule based on inflation forecasts (Bank of England [4]). We solve the model numerically and we use stochastic simulations to construct efficient frontiers on the inflation variance and output variance space. The sets of optimal rules for the two versions are qualitatively distinct. Since there is uncertainty about the economy's forward-lookingness, we propose a ranking of rules based on an equal weighted average of each model's objective function. The best-ranked rules according to this criterion have performance moderately inferior to the optimal rules, but prevent much larger losses that would occur when rules are chosen according to the wrong model.

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Paper provided by Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa in its series Insper Working Papers with number wpe_11.

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Date of creation: Oct 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ibm:ibmecp:wpe_11
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  1. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
  2. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  3. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999. "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England.
  4. Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995. "Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Moreira, Humberto Ataíde & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Carrasco, Vinícius, 2000. "Aprendizado Evolucionário, Inércia Inflacionária e Recessão em Desinflações Monetárias," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 403, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  7. Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 1997. "Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  10. Simon Hall & Chris Salmon & Tony Yates & Nicoletta Batini, 1999. "Uncertainty and Simple Monetary Policy Rules - An illustration for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 96, Bank of England.
  11. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Recent developments in the analysis of monetary policy rules," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 3-12.
  13. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  14. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 2002. "Rule-of-thumb behaviour and monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. David Blake, 1991. "The Estimation of Rational Expectations Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 31-70, September.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  17. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
  18. M. R. Wickens, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67.
  19. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
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