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Aprendizado Evolucionário, Inércia Inflacionária e Recessão em Desinflações Monetárias

Author

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  • Moreira, Humberto Ataíde
  • Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar
  • Carrasco, Vinícius

Abstract

Este artigo busca justificar a evidência casual de que desin‡ações monetárias tendem a ser acompanhadas de queda no produto utilizando-se doarcabouç odaTeoriados Jogos Evolucioná rios. A aplicaç ã odeste arcabouç otem oseu apeloporquecombinaduas hipóteses frequentemente apontadas como responsá veis pelo fato de que desin‡aç ões críveis têm custos: racionalidade limitada e falha de coordenaç ã o. A aná lise das desin‡aç õesconstitui-senaaná lisedatransiç ã oentredoisequilíbriosestacioná rios. A dinâmicadaeconomiaem direç ã oaonovoequilíbriodojogo deestabelecimentodepreç os édadapeladinâmicareplicadora, que usa uma regra de seleç ã o de estratégias muito simples: estratégias que apresentam desempenho piorque a média têm sua utilizaç ã o reduzida ao longo do tempo. O s custos da desin‡aç ã o em nosso modelo depende doquã orá pidoagentes passivos, que adotavam a estratégia ótima para o equilíbrio in‡acioná rio, se convertem em agentes ativos, que adotam estratégias maximizadoras duranteatransiç ã o.

Suggested Citation

  • Moreira, Humberto Ataíde & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Carrasco, Vinícius, 2000. "Aprendizado Evolucionário, Inércia Inflacionária e Recessão em Desinflações Monetárias," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 403, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
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    1. repec:sbe:breart:v:28:y:2008:i:1:a:1517 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bonomo, Marco Antonio Cesar & Brito, Ricardo D., 2002. "Regras Monetárias e Dinâmica Macroeconômica no Brasil: Uma Abordagem de Expectativas Racionais," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(4), October.
    3. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2008. "Racionalidade Limitada e Neutralidade Monetária: Uma Abordagem Evolucionária," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211620520, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos & Jayme Andrade Neto, 2015. "Analyzing COPOM’s Decisions," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(6), pages 24-47, November.
    5. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2007. "Regimes De Ajustamento Nominal Em Uma Macrodinâmica Evolucionária," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 021, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Kihlstrom, Richard, 2000. "Monopoly power in dynamic securities markets," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 428, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).

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