The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes
This paper studies the survival of fixed exchange rate regimes. The probability of an exit from a fixed exchange rate regime depends on the time spent within this regime. In such a context durations models are appropriate, in particular because of the possible non-monotonic pattern of duration dependence. Non-parametric estimates show that the pattern of duration dependence exhibits non-monotonic behaviour and that it differs across types of economies. This behaviour persists when we control for time-varying covariates in a proportional hazard specification. We conclude that how long a regime has lasted will affect the probability that it will end, in a non-monotonic fashion.
|Date of creation:||15 Dec 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 01|
Phone: 00 353 1 896 3888
Fax: 00 353 1 896 3939
Web page: http://www.tcd.ie/iiis/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- M M Tudela, 2001.
"Explaining Currency Crises: A Duration Model Approach,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0487, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Tudela, Merxe, 2004. "Explaining currency crises: a duration model approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 799-816, September.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002.
"The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation,"
NBER Working Papers
8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Enrica Detragiache & Eisuke Okada & Ashoka Mody, 2005. "Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 05/39, International Monetary Fund.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- MASSON, Paul & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003.
"Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes,"
Cahiers de recherche
15-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Paul Masson & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2005. "Explaining the Transition between Exchange Rate Regimes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 261-278, 06.
- MASSON, Paul & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes," Cahiers de recherche 2003-21, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Francisco Perez-Bermejo & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Reyes Maroto-Illera, 2007.
"An eclectic approach to currency crises: drawing lessons from the EMS experience,"
Applied Financial Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 503-519.
- Reyes Maroto Illera & Francisco Pérez Bermejo & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, "undated". "An Eclectic Approach to Currency Crises: Drawing Lessons from the EMS Experience," Working Papers 2002-22, FEDEA.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
- repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cook, Ian G. & Dummer, Trevor J. B., 2004. "Changing health in China: re-evaluating the epidemiological transition model," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 329-343, March.
- S. Brock Blomberg & Jeffry Frieden & Ernesto Stein, 2005. "Sustaining fixed rates: The political economy of currency pegs in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 203-225, November.
- Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
- Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
- Srinivasan, T N, 1994. "Human Development: A New Paradigm or Reinvention of the Wheel?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 238-243, May.
- Asici, Ahmet & Wyplosz, Charles, 2003.
"The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg,"
4432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
- Streeten, Paul, 1994. "Human Development: Means and Ends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 232-237, May.
- Ingrid Nielsen & Russell Smyth & Mingqiong Zhang, 2006. "Unemployment Within China's Floating Population: Empirical Evidence from Jiangsu Survey Data," Chinese Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 39(4), pages 41-56, August.
- Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
- Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997.
"Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
- Inci Ã–tker & Rupa Duttagupta, 2003. "Exits From Pegged Regimes; An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 03/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Heather Xiaoquan Zhang, 2004. "The gathering storm: AIDS policy in China," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(8), pages 1155-1168.
- Christopher M. Meissner, 2002. "A New World Order: Explaining the Emergence of the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 9233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Colette Keleher)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.