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Scylla and Charybdis. Explaining Europe’s Exit from Gold, January 1928 – December 1936

  • Nikolaus Wolf

The paper examines the timing of exit from the interwar gold-exchange standard for a panel of European countries, based on monthly data over the period January 1928 - December 1936. I show that exit from gold can be understood in terms of a trade-off between a limited set of factors commonly suggested in the theoretical literature on currency crises. A simple and parsimonious econometric framework that nests various hypotheses allows me to predict the month of exit in the 1930s, except for France. I consider the separate cases of France and Poland to show my results shed light on country-specific debates.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-04/cesifo1_wp2271.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2271.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2271
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