IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksp/journ1/v3y2016i2p377-392.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Arrangements and Currency Crises: What´s the matter with the exchange rate classification?

Author

Listed:
  • Alexis CRUZ-RODRIGUEZ

    (Department of Economics, Pontificia Universidad Católica Madre y Maestra, Dominican Republic.)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether certain exchange rate arrangements are more prone to currency crises using a probit model. We define a currency crisis as a period characterised by the presence of intense foreign exchange market pressure. The definition is based on a foreign exchange market pressure index (MPI). If the value of the MPI is above a certain threshold, we define that period as a crisis state; otherwise the period is defined as a tranquil state. The definition of currency crises used in this paper focuses on discrete events.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis CRUZ-RODRIGUEZ, 2016. "Exchange Arrangements and Currency Crises: What´s the matter with the exchange rate classification?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 377-392, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:377-392
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEPE/article/download/859/862
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.kspjournals.org/index.php/JEPE/article/view/859/862
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    4. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Ms. Anne Marie Gulde & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 1995/121, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Marek Dabrowski, 2001. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets - Selected Comparative Studies," CASE Network Reports 0041, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 2002/155, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Esaka, Taro, 2010. "Exchange rate regimes, capital controls, and currency crises: Does the bipolar view hold?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-108, February.
    9. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Moussé Sow, 2016. "Crises and exchange rate regimes: time to break down the bipolar view?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(46), pages 4393-4409, October.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    12. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    13. Jeannine Bailliu & Robert Lafrance & Jean‐François Perrault, 2003. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), pages 381-414, November.
    14. Atish R Ghosh & Jonathan D Ostry & Mahvash S Qureshi, 2015. "Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 238-276, May.
    15. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    16. Tudela, Merxe, 2004. "Explaining currency crises: a duration model approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 799-816, September.
    17. AsIcI, Ahmet AtIl, 2011. "Exchange rate regime choice and currency crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 419-436, September.
    18. Annamaria Kokenyne & Mr. Romain M Veyrune & Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Harald J Anderson, 2009. "Revised System for the Classification of Exchange Rate Arrangements," IMF Working Papers 2009/211, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
    20. Fasika Damte Haile & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 554-570, September.
    21. Elisabetta Falcetti & Merxe Tudela, 2006. "Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 445-471, August.
    22. Justin M. Dubas & Byung-Joo Lee & Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 2003/223, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Jeffrey Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 384-416, July.
    25. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2014. "Currency Crises, Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Account Liberalization: A Duration Analysis Approach," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom (ed.), Advances in Non-linear Economic Modeling, edition 127, pages 233-262, Springer.
    27. Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
    28. Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom (ed.), 2014. "Advances in Non-linear Economic Modeling," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-42039-9, March.
    29. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
    30. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    31. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    32. Esaka, Taro, 2010. "De facto exchange rate regimes and currency crises: Are pegged regimes with capital account liberalization really more prone to speculative attacks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1109-1128, June.
    33. Apanard Angkinand & Eric Chiu & Thomas Willett, 2009. "Testing the Unstable Middle and Two Corners Hypotheses About Exchange Rate Regimes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 61-83, February.
    34. Esaka, Taro, 2014. "Are consistent pegs really more prone to currency crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 136-163.
    35. Brahima Coulibaly, 2009. "Currency unions and currency crises: an empirical assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 199-221.
    36. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
    37. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 301-352.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "Exchange Arrangements and Speculative Attacks: Is there a link?," MPRA Paper 72359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2016. "An empirical assessment of exchange arrangements and inflation performance," MPRA Paper 73005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Alexis Cruz-Rodriguez, 2013. "Choosing and Assessing Exchange Rate Regimes: a Survey of the Literature," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 28(2), pages 37-61, October.
    4. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2022. "Exchange arrangements and economic growth. What relationship is there?," MPRA Paper 113897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    8. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Marc Pourroy, 2013. "Inflation-Targeting and Foreign Exchange Interventions in Emerging Economies," Post-Print halshs-00881359, HAL.
    11. Esaka, Taro, 2014. "Are consistent pegs really more prone to currency crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 136-163.
    12. Sidi Mohammed Chekouri & Abderrahim Chibi & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2022. "Identifying Algeria’s de facto exchange rate regime: a wavelet-based approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    13. repec:aly:journl:202049 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2020. "The Fata Morgana of Exchange Rate Regimes: Reconciling the LYS and the RR classifications," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-32, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    15. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel-Cristian Voia, 2014. "Currency Crises, Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Account Liberalization: A Duration Analysis Approach," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom (ed.), Advances in Non-linear Economic Modeling, edition 127, pages 233-262, Springer.
    16. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2021. "Better Two Eyes than One: A Synthesis Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2021-07, CEPII research center.
    17. Terrones, Marco E., 2020. "Do fixers perform worse than non-fixers during global recessions and recoveries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    18. Esaka, Taro, 2010. "De facto exchange rate regimes and currency crises: Are pegged regimes with capital account liberalization really more prone to speculative attacks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1109-1128, June.
    19. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Moussé Sow, 2016. "Crises and exchange rate regimes: time to break down the bipolar view?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(46), pages 4393-4409, October.
    20. Nakatani, Ryota, 2018. "Real and financial shocks, exchange rate regimes and the probability of a currency crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 60-73.
    21. Abouelkhair, Anass & Gahaz, Taha & Y. Tamsamani, Yasser, 2018. "Choix du régime de change et croissance économique : Une analyse empirique sur des données de panel africaines [Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis on African Pan," MPRA Paper 84700, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regimes; currency crises; speculative attacks.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:377-392. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bilal KARGI (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kspjournals.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.