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Better two eyes than one: A synthesis classification of exchange rate regimes

Author

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  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Carl Grekou

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new de facto classification of exchange rate regimes, the synthesis classification. This framework offers several advantages over existing de facto classifications. First, it provides a unified framework that integrates the most divergent classifications, the RR and LYS classifications, not only achieving broader coverage but also encompassing a wide spectrum of exchange regimes. Second, it fits better with the historical developments of exchange rate regimes in the post-Bretton Woods era. Among others, it brings a nuanced perspective on the so-called hollowing-out hypothesis by showing that the evolution of de facto regimes —especially in emerging economies since the late 1990s— has essentially involved a shift toward more tightly "managed" intermediate regimes, rather than a move away from them. As an illustration of the insightfulness of our classification, we empirically revisit the relationship between currency crises and exchange rate regimes. Our classification not only associates a higher probability of currency crisis with both intermediate and floating regimes, but also shows better statistical performances in predicting currency crises compared to other classifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2021. "Better two eyes than one: A synthesis classification of exchange rate regimes," Working Papers hal-04752826, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04752826
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04752826v1
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    1. Valérie Mignon & Blaise Gnimassoun & Carl Grekou, 2024. "The industrial cost of fixed exchange rate regimes," Working Papers hal-04582964, HAL.
    2. Oriola, Hugo, 2023. "Political monetary cycles: An empirical study," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crisis; De facto classifications; Exchange rate regimes; Probit model; ROC analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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