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The Dangers of Exchange‐Rate Pegging in Emerging‐Market Countries

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  • Frederic S. Mishkin

Abstract

This paper examines the question of whether pegging exchange rates is a good strategy for emerging‐market countries. Although pegging the exchange rate provides a nominal anchor for emerging‐market countries that can help them to control inflation, the analysis in this paper does not provide support for this strategy for the conduct of monetary policy. First there are the usual criticisms of exchange‐rate pegging, that it entails the loss of an independent monetary policy, exposes the country to the transmission of shocks from the anchor country, increases the likelihood of speculative attacks and potentially weakens the accountability of policymakers to pursue anti‐inflationary policies. However, most damaging to the case for exchange‐rate pegging in emerging‐market countries is that it can increase financial fragility and heighten the potential for financial crises. Because of the devastating effects on the economy that financial crises can bring, an exchange‐rate peg is a very dangerous strategy for controlling inflation in emerging‐market countries. Instead, this paper suggests that a strategy with a greater likelihood of success involves the granting of independence to the central bank and the adoption of inflation targeting.

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  • Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "The Dangers of Exchange‐Rate Pegging in Emerging‐Market Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 81-101, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:1:y:1998:i:1:p:81-101
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-2362.00005
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    1. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "International experiences with different monetary policy regimesMishkin, 1998b). Any views expressed in this paper are those of the author only and not those of Columbia University or the National Bur," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 579-605, June.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller, 2016. "Inflation persistence and structural breaks: the experience of inflation targeting countries and the US," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 980-1005, November.
    3. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
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    5. Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi, 2009. "Assess The Long Run Effects Of Monetary Policy On Bank lending,Foreign Asset and Liability In MENA Countries," MPRA Paper 14331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
    7. Juha Tervala, 2019. "U.S. monetary policy and China's exchange rate policy during the great recession," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 113-130, January.
    8. Gulcin Ozkan & Filiz Unsal, "undated". "External finance, sudden stops and financial crisis: what is different this time?," Discussion Papers 09/22, Department of Economics, University of York.
    9. F. Gulcin Ozkan & D. Filiz Unsal, 2012. "Global financial crisis, financial contagion and emerging markets," Discussion Papers 12/35, Department of Economics, University of York.
    10. Kerim Peren Arin & Timur Han Gur, 2009. "Exchange rate versus monetary aggregate targeting: the Turkish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2085-2092.
    11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    12. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 1999. "A nemzetközi pénzügyi válságok tovaterjedése különböző árfolyamrendszerekben [The spread of international financial crises under various exchange-rate systems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 945-968.
    13. Mishkin,Frederic S., 2001. "Financial policies and the prevention of financial crises in emerging market economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2683, The World Bank.
    14. Rizvi, S.K.A. & Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Bordes, Christian, 2017. "Fear of floating in Asia and the credibility of true floaters?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 149-160.
    15. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    16. Fernando N. Oliveira, 2014. "The Market of Foreign Exchange Hedge in Brazil: Reaction of Financial Institutions to Interventions of the Central Bank," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 174-187.
    17. Marjan Petreski, 2009. "A Critique On Inflation Targeting," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 11-24, December.
    18. Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Mr. F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2012. "Global Financial Crisis, Financial Contagion, and Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2012/293, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    20. Makreshanska, Suzana & Petrevski, Goran, 2015. "Fiscal Decentralization and Inflation in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 77596, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Mar 2017.
    21. Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2011. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses," IMF Working Papers 2011/189, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Financial stability and the Macroeconomy," Economics wp09, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin & Andrew Crockett & Michael P. Dooley & Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2003. "Financial Policies," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 93-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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