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Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective

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  • Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

During the last few years there has been a renewed analysis in currency unions as a form of monetary arrangement. This new interest has been largely triggered by the Euro experience. Scholars and policy makers have asked about the optimal number of currencies in the world economy. They have analyzed whether different countries satisfy the traditional %u201Coptimal currency area%u201D criteria. These include, among other: (a) the synchronization of the business cycle; (b) the degree of factor mobility; and (c) the extent of trade and financial integration. In this paper I analyze the desirability of a monetary union from a Latin American perspective. First, I review the existing literature on the subject. Second, I use a large data set to analyze the evidence on economic performance in currency union countries. I investigate these countries%u2019 performance on four dimensions: (a) whether countries without a national currency have a lower occurrence of %u201Csudden stop%u201D episodes; (b) whether they have a lower occurrence of %u201Ccurrent account reversal%u201D episodes; (c) what is their ability to absorb international terms of trade shocks; and (d) what is their ability to absorb %u201Csudden stops%u201D and %u201Ccurrent account reversals%u201D shocks. I find that belonging to a currency union has not lower the probability of facing a sudden stop or a current account reversal. I also find that external shocks have been amplified in currency union countries. The degree of amplification is particularly large when compared to flexible exchange rate countries.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-247, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:3:y:2006:i:3:p:225-247
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-006-0056-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Céline Gimet, 2007. "Le projet d'Union Monétaire dans le Mercosur :Etude de la position actuelle dans les pays par rapport à une carte de critères de soutenabilité," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(2), pages 249-273.
    2. Campa, Jose Manuel & Gavilan, Angel, 2011. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 205-228, February.
    3. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek & Julian Berengaut, 2006. "Beauty Queens and Wallflowers; Currency Unions in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 06/226, International Monetary Fund.
    4. John Williamson, 2006. "A worldwide system of reference rates," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 341-352, December.
    5. Gabriela Contreras & Alfredo Pistelli & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 665, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2011. "Capital market imperfections and the theory of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1659-1675.
    7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
    8. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
    9. Stephen McKnight & Marco Robles Sánchez, 2014. "Is a monetary union feasible for Latin America? Evidence from real effective exchange rates and interest rate pass-through levels," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 29(2), pages 225-262.
    10. Levan Efremidze & Samuel M. Schreyer & Ozan Sula, 2011. "Sudden stops and currency crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 304-321, November.
    11. Cohen, Joseph N., 2008. "Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America," MPRA Paper 22435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson, 2011. "Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean," Working Papers 2011017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    13. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    14. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2006. "Disentabling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches," Post-Print halshs-00262366, HAL.
    15. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Morten Rasmussen & Oliver Röhn, 2016. "Economic Resilience: What Role for Policies?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-44, June.
    16. Omotor, Douglason G. & Niringiye, Aggrey, 2011. "Optimum Currency Area and Shock Asymmetry: A Dynamic Analysis of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 71-82, September.
    17. Andrea Gabriela Bonilla Bolaños, 2011. "Symmetry of External Shock responses within the Andean Community of Nations: A SVAR Approach," Working Papers 1140, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    18. Slavov, Slavi T., 2009. "Do common currencies facilitate the net flow of capital among countries?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 124-144, August.
    19. José M. Campa & Ángel Gavilán, 2006. "Current accounts in the euro area: An intertemporal approach," Working Papers 0638, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    20. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069, HAL.
    21. Garcia Rocabado, Daniel, 2010. "The road to monetary union in Latin America: An EMS-type fixed exchange rate system as an intermediate step," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 85, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    22. Barbara Pfeffer, 2008. "Do regional Trade and Specialization drive intra-regional Risk-Sharing?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200813, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary union; Business cycle; Multi nation currency;

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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