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Sequencing of Reforms, Financial Globalization, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability

In: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

I use a large cross country data set and panel probit analysis to investigate the way in which the interaction between trade and financial openness affect the probability of external crises. This analysis is related to debate on the adequate sequencing of reform. I also investigate the role played by current account and fiscal imbalances, contagion, international reserves holdings, and the exchange rate regime as possible determinants of external crises. The results indicate that relaxing capital controls increases the likelihood of a country experiencing a sudden stop. Moreover, the results suggest that "financial liberalization first" strategies increase the degree of vulnerability to external crises. This is particularly the case if this strategy is pursued with pegged exchange rates and if it results in large current account imbalances.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2009. "Sequencing of Reforms, Financial Globalization, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12017
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    Cited by:

    1. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    2. Joshua C. Hall & Robert A. Lawson, 2014. "Economic Freedom Of The World: An Accounting Of The Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Chang, Chia-Ying, 2013. "Capital controls, capital flows, and banking crises," Working Paper Series 18794, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States," IEER Working Papers 79, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    5. Andreas Hoffmann, 2019. "Beware of Financial Repression: Lessons from History," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 259-266, July.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Lai, Jennifer & Chen, Hongyi & McNelis, Paul D., 2020. "Macroeconomic adjustment with managed exchange rates and capital controls: Some lessons from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 759-768.
    8. Tolga Aksoy, 2013. "Economic Reforms and Growth in Developing Countries," EcoMod2013 5318, EcoMod.
    9. Chia, W.M. & Jinjarak, Y. & Rana, P. & Xie, T., 2014. "Net foreign assets and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-53.
    10. Roberto Meurer, 2016. "Portfolio Investment Flows, GDP, and Investment in Brazil," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Tolga Aksoy, 2019. "Structural reforms and growth in developing countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 325-350, October.
    12. Aidi, Wafa, 2013. "Optima exchange crisis regression and twin crisis: Evidences for some MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-311.
    13. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2012. "How strong is the case for dollarization in Central America? An empirical analysis of business cycles, credit market imperfections and the exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 147-166, April.
    14. Soumia Zenasni, 2015. "Recent Trends in Regional Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization in Maghreb Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Analysis," FIW Working Paper series 145, FIW.
    15. Andreas Hoffmann & Björn Urbansky, 2015. "Policy Shifts and Financial Instability in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 455-469, August.
    16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Chang, Chia-Ying, 2013. "Capital controls, capital flows, and banking crises," Working Paper Series 2979, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Arezki,Rabah & Belmejdoub,Oussama & Diab,Bilal & Kalla,Samira & Ha Nguyen & Saif,Abdulla Fahed Abdulla Ali & Yotzov,Ivan Victorov, 2022. "From #Hashtags to Legislation : Engagement and Support for Economic Reforms in the GulfCooperation Council Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10090, The World Bank.
    19. Tolga Aksoy, 2016. "The Political Economy Of Structural Reforms," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 25-69, January.
    20. Bernhard G. Gunter & Britni Wilcher, 2020. "Three decades of globalisation: Which countries won, which lost?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 1076-1102, April.
    21. Roberto Meurer, 2011. "Measuring the impact of financial flows on macroeconomic variables: the case of Brazil after the 2008 crisis," Working Papers 0117, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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