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Sequencing of Reforms, Financial Globalization, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

I use a large cross country data set and panel probit analysis to investigate the way in which the interaction between trade and financial openness affect the probability of external crises. This analysis is related to debate on the adequate sequencing of reform. I also investigate the role played by current account and fiscal imbalances, contagion, international reserves holdings, and the exchange rate regime as possible determinants of external crises. The results indicate that relaxing capital controls increases the likelihood of a country experiencing a sudden stop. Moreover, the results suggest that "financial liberalization first" strategies increase the degree of vulnerability to external crises. This is particularly the case if this strategy is pursued with pegged exchange rates and if it results in large current account imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Sequencing of Reforms, Financial Globalization, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability," NBER Working Papers 14384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14384 Note: IFM
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2008. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 219-266 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Funke, Norbert, 1993. "Timing and sequencing of reforms: Competing views," Kiel Working Papers 552, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Banks Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(2), pages 135-156, June.
    4. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters,in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Edison, Hali J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2003. "A simple measure of the intensity of capital controls," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 81-103, February.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1978. "The Estimation of a Simultaneous Equation Generalized Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1193-1205, September.
    7. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    8. Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Capital controls, capital flow contractions, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 814-840, September.
    9. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    10. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Financial dollarization: evaluating the consequences," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 61-118, January.
    12. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 2001. "Capital controls and exchange rate stability in developing countries," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul20.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2009. "Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 175-189, May.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    17. Edwards, Sebastián, 2007. "Crises and growth : a Latin American perspective," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp07-07, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    19. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    2. Joshua C. Hall & Robert A. Lawson, 2014. "Economic Freedom Of The World: An Accounting Of The Literature," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States," Working Papers 79, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    5. Soumia Zenasni, 2015. "Recent Trends in Regional Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization in Maghreb Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Analysis," FIW Working Paper series 145, FIW.
    6. Chia, W.M. & Jinjarak, Y. & Rana, P. & Xie, T., 2014. "Net foreign assets and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-53.
    7. Chang, Chia-Ying, 2013. "Capital controls, capital flows, and banking crises," Working Paper Series 2979, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    8. Aidi, Wafa, 2013. "Optima exchange crisis regression and twin crisis: Evidences for some MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-311.
    9. repec:tek:journl:v:5:y:2016:i:1:p:25-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Roberto Meurer, 2011. "Measuring the impact of financial flows on macroeconomic variables: the case of Brazil after the 2008 crisis," Working Papers 0117, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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