IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States

  • Nannette Lindenberg
  • Frank Westermann

We evaluate the proposal for official dollarization in Costa Rica by applying a new approach to measure the business cycle comovements with the United States. While the literature often focuses on the correlation of shocks, we point out that the response of each country to the shocks is also an important aspect of stabilization policy. We analyze whether Costa Rica and the United States share a common synchronized response to shocks, i.e. a common business cycle, using the Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Cubadda (1999, 2007) serial correlation common features tests, in a quarterly GDP data set from 1991 to 2008. Although we find some tendency towards common AR(p) structures and common long run trends, we reject the hypothesis that the two countries share a common business cycle. Based on this evidence, we conclude that official dollarization in Costa Rica would impede the efforts of its stabilization policy, despite the relatively high contemporaneous correlation of shocks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2785.

in new window

Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2785
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Salvatore, Dominick, 2001. "Which countries in the Americas should dollarize?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 347-355, April.
  2. Gianluca Cubadda, 2007. "A Unifying Framework for Analysing Common Cyclical Features in Cointegrated Time Series," CEIS Research Paper 102, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  3. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  4. Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Policy Responses to Exchange-Rate Movements," NBER Working Papers 15173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "An Evaluation of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 178, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Norbert Fiess, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization and Regional Integration: A Case Study for Central America," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 49-72.
  7. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt38j2b036, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Yin-wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2005. "An Output Perspective on a Northeast Asia Currency Union," Working Papers 162005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Tenreyro, Silvana & Barro, Robert & Alesina, Alberto, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," Scholarly Articles 4553033, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 482-509, May.
  11. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 1-112.
  12. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Helge Berger & Henrik Jensen & Guttorm Schjelderup, 2001. "To Peg or Not To Peg? A Simple Model of Exchange Rate Regime Choice In Small Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 468, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  16. Frederic S. Mishkin & Miguel A. Savastano, 2000. "Monetary Policy Strategies for Latin America," NBER Working Papers 7617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Freund, Caroline & Spatafora, Nikola, 2008. "Remittances, transaction costs, and informality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 356-366, June.
  18. Edmar L. Bacha & Márcio Holland & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2008. "Systemic Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: A Panel-Based Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 23(1), pages 101-117, September.
  19. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  20. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  23. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  24. Urga, Giovanni, 2007. "Common Features in Economics and Finance: An Overview of Recent Developments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 2-11, January.
  25. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  26. Sebastian Edwards, 2009. "Sequencing of reforms, financial globalization, and macroeconomic vulnerability," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-91, May-June.
  28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.