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Systemic Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: A Panel-Based Approach

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  • Edmar L. Bacha
  • Márcio Holland
  • Fernando M. Gonçalves

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of systemic risks and financial dollarization on real interest rates in emerging economies. Higher systemic risks induce both higher real interest rates and increased dollarization. Using appropriate instruments for the dollarization ratio, the study overcomes the simultaneous equation problem and correctly estimates a negative coefficient for the dollarization ratio in the interest rate equation. It confirms the theoretical prediction that a strategy of "dedollarizing" the economy will raise the equilibrium domestic real interest rate if the strategy fails to address fundamental macroeconomic risks. Even so, it also finds that this effect is small, after controlling for the risks of dilution and default. The results bring to light the systemic-risk reasons for high interest rates in emerging economies--and contribute to evaluating the difficulties of dedollarization policies. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmar L. Bacha & Márcio Holland & Fernando M. Gonçalves, 2008. "Systemic Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: A Panel-Based Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 23(1), pages 101-117, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:101-117
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhn012
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    Cited by:

    1. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States," Working Papers 79, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    2. Boris T. Petkov, 2017. "Excessive Debt or Excess Savings -- Transition Countries Sovereign Bond Spread Assessment," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 91-119, March.
    3. Hrabrin Bachev, 2013. "Risk Management in the Agri-food Sector," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(1), March.

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