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Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture) and the three corresponding sectoral stock market indexes. It is found that data with and without seasonal adjustment give mixed results on the long-run interaction between the sectoral indexes. Compared with data that are non-seasonally adjusted, the adjusted data offer weaker evidence on the cointegration relationship between a) the sectoral output indexes, b) sectoral stock indexes, and c) individual pairs of real and financial indexes. On short-run comovement, seasonally adjusted data offer stronger evidence on the presence of common synchronized and non-synchronized cyclical components. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 141-156, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:1:p:141-156
    DOI: 10.1007/s001810100123
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    Cited by:

    1. Berument Hakan & Akdi Yilmaz & Atakan Cemal, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Istanbul Stock Exchange Sub-Indexes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    3. Akdi, Yilmaz & Berument, Hakan & Mümin Cilasun, Seyit, 2006. "The relationship between different price indices: Evidence from Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 483-492.
    4. Antonio E. Noriega, 2004. "Sector-Level Disaggregate Stochastic Trends in Mexico’s Real Output," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 29-42, January-J.
    5. Vrinda Gupta & Amlendu Dubey, 2024. "US monetary policy, the global financial cycle and cross-country financial cycles," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(4), pages 999-1019, December.
    6. Lindenberg, Nannette & Westermann, Frank, 2012. "Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1125-1140.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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