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Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates

Listed author(s):
  • Dixon, R.
  • Shepherd, D.

This paper has as its subject matter the behaviour of state unemployment rates over time. Arguments are presented which suggest that the common approach which entails regressing state or regional rate of unemployment on the national rate is not likely to yield much useful knowledge. As a positive contribution to the literature, this paper focuses on two things: first, the behaviour over time in the dispersion of state unemployment rates and their relationship with the business cycle and; second, tests for the presence of common trends and/or common cycles in the state unemployment rates. The results suggest that there is a case which can be made for regional policy in Australia.

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File URL: http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-00-01/730.pdf
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Paper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 730.

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Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:730
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia

Phone: +61 3 8344 8560
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/economics
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  1. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
  2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  3. Mark Crosby & Nilss Olekalns, 1998. "Inflation, Unemployment and the NAIRU in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(2), pages 117-129.
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
  5. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
  6. DeJong, David N. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1991. "Reconsidering 'trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 221-254, October.
  7. Ron Martin, 1997. "Regional Unemployment Disparities and their Dynamics," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 237-252.
  8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
  9. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "Common and uncommon trends and cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 624-635, April.
  10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  11. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1992. "International Evidence of the Historical Properties of Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 864-888, September.
  12. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Hagger, A J, 1998. "The Natural Unemployment Rate in Australia since the Seventies," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(224), pages 24-35, March.
  13. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
  14. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
  16. Christodoulakis, Nicos & Dimelis, Sophia P & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "Comparisons of Business Cycles in the EC: Idiosyncracies and Regularities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(245), pages 1-27, February.
  17. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
  18. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
  19. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  20. Ng, Serena & Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Estimation and inference in nearly unbalanced nearly cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 53-81, July.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
  22. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  24. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 1997. "Common features and output fluctuations in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, January.
  25. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
  26. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
  27. Dixon, R. & Shepherd, D. & Thomson, J., 2000. "Regional Unemployment Disparities," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 737, The University of Melbourne.
  28. Hess, Gregory D & Shin, Kwanho, 1997. "International and Intranational Business Cycles," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 93-109, Autumn.
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