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Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates


  • Dixon, R.
  • Shepherd, D.


This paper has as its subject matter the behaviour of state unemployment rates over time. Arguments are presented which suggest that the common approach which entails regressing state or regional rate of unemployment on the national rate is not likely to yield much useful knowledge. As a positive contribution to the literature, this paper focuses on two things: first, the behaviour over time in the dispersion of state unemployment rates and their relationship with the business cycle and; second, tests for the presence of common trends and/or common cycles in the state unemployment rates. The results suggest that there is a case which can be made for regional policy in Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, R. & Shepherd, D., 2000. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 730, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:730

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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Shu-Ching & Wu, Tsung-pao & Lee, Kuei-Chiu & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "Flexible Fourier unit root test of unemployment for PIIGS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 142-148.
    2. George Verikios, 2004. "A Model of the World Wool Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 04-24, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
    4. Werner, Daniel, 2014. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100416, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    6. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2013. "Regional Dimensions of the Australian Business Cycle," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 264-281, February.
    7. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "An empirical note on testing hysteresis in unemployment for ten European countries: panel SURADF approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(14), pages 881-886.
    8. John Freebairn, 2003. "Economic policy for rural and regional Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(3), pages 389-414, September.
    9. Ernst Juerg Weber, 2006. "Monetary policy in a heterogeneous monetary union: the Australian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2487-2495.
    10. Chang, Tsangyao, 2011. "Hysteresis in unemployment for 17 OECD countries: Stationary test with a Fourier function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2208-2214, September.
    11. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. David Norman & Thomas Walker, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2004-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Working Papers 05_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    14. Chaudhuri Kausik & Sheen Jeffrey R, 2007. "To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labor Markets," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-37, January.
    15. David Gray, 2004. "Persistent Regional Unemployment Differentials Revisited," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 167-176.
    16. Nicolaas Groenewold & Alfred Hagger, 2007. "Regional Unemployment Disparities: An Evaluation of Policy Measures," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 07-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    17. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "An investigation of the behaviour of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 676-683, July.
    18. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:05:n:s0217590815500782 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Thomas Walker & David Norman, 2004. "Co-movement of Australian State Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 334, Econometric Society.
    20. Robert Dixon, 2007. "Common Cycles in Labour Market Separation Rates for Australian States," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 991, The University of Melbourne.
    21. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2002. "The Relationship Between Regional and National Unemployment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 469-480.
    22. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Disaggregated Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    23. Verikios, George & Zhang, Xiao-guang, 2013. "Structural change in the Australian electricity industry during the 1990s and the effect on household income distribution: A macro–micro approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 564-575.
    24. Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chia-Hao, 2011. "Hysteresis in Unemployment for G-7 Countries: Threshold Unit Root Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-14, December.
    25. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2010. "The not-so-great moderation? Evidence on changing volatility from Australian regions," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1090, The University of Melbourne.

    More about this item



    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles


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