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Testing for Common Cycles in Money, Nominal Income and Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen Hall
  • David Shepherd

Abstract

In this paper we consider whether common cyclical dynamics can be identified in the money–inflation relationships suggested by the quantity theory of money. The analysis is based on an examination of data for the USA and the UK, using correlation methods and the more stringent common features test developed by Engle and Kozicki. We discuss the nature of the test procedures and the results from the common features test are compared with those obtained from the more traditional correlation analysis. The results of the analysis are mixed, but are generally supportive of the quantity theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Hall & David Shepherd, 2003. "Testing for Common Cycles in Money, Nominal Income and Prices," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(s1), pages 68-84, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:71:y:2003:i:s1:p:68-84
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.71.s.5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
    2. F. Vahid & R. F. Engle, 1993. "Common Trends And Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, October.
    3. repec:bla:econom:v:62:y:1995:i:245:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, João Victor, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 47(2), April.
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    7. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Buch, Claudia M. & Golder, Stefan M., 2000. "Domestic and Foreign Banks in Germany: Do They Differ?," Kiel Working Papers 986, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
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    3. Buch, Claudia M. & Golder, Stefan M., 2001. "Foreign versus domestic banks in Germany and the US: a tale of two markets?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4-5), pages 341-361, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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