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Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output

Author

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  • Christoph Schleicher
  • Francisco Barillas

Abstract

This paper examines evidence of long- and short-run co-movement in Canadian sectoral output data. Our framework builds on a vector-error-correction representation that allows to test for and compute full-information maximum-likelihood estimates of models with codependent cycle restrictions. We find that the seven sectors under consideration contain five common trends and five codependent cycles and use their estimates to obtain a multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition to isolate and compare the common components. A forecast error variance decomposition indicates that some sectors, such as manufacturing and construction, are subject to persistent transitory shocks, whereas other sectors, such as financial services, are not. We also find that imposing common feature restrictions leads to a non-trivial gain in the ability to forecast both aggregate and sectoral output. Among the main conclusions is that manufacturing, construction, and the primary sector are the most important sources of business cycle fluctuations for the Canadian economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Schleicher & Francisco Barillas, 2005. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Canadian Sectoral Output," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 214, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:214
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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/2003/wp03-44.htm
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    3. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    4. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. " Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-532, September.
    5. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    2. de Silva, Ashton & Hyndman, Rob J. & Snyder, Ralph, 2009. "A multivariate innovations state space Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1067-1074, September.
    3. Christoph Schleicher, 2007. "Codependence in cointegrated autoregressive models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 137-159.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    common features; business cycles; vector autoregressions;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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