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Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region's GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America's future will be one of "No crises and modest growth."

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Crises and Growth: A Latin American Perspective," NBER Working Papers 13019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13019
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    1. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2007. "When Did Latin America Fall Behind?," NBER Chapters,in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 15-58 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2009. "Sequencing of Reforms, Financial Globalization, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Milan Nedeljkovic & Gonzalo Varela & Michele Savini Zangrandi, 2015. "Indonesia Current Account Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22340, The World Bank.
    3. Fanelli, José María & Jiménez, Juan Pablo, 2009. "Crisis, volatility and fiscal policy in Latin America," Documentos de Proyectos 4167, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    4. Gómez Sabaini, Juan Carlos & Jiménez, Juan Pablo, 2009. "El papel de la política tributaria frente a la crisis: límites y posibilidades," Documentos de Proyectos 4166, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth in the First Era of Globalization," NBER Working Papers 13577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2015. "Financial Crises, Development, and Growth: A Long-term Perspective," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(suppl_1), pages 53-76.
    7. José María Fanelli, 2009. "Economic Policy out of the Corridor. Reflections on the Global Crisis and the Latin American Experience," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(53-54), pages 73-105, January -.
    8. -, 2009. "Macroeconomic policies in times of crisis: options and perspectives," Documentos de Proyectos 275, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Gómez Sabaini, Juan Carlos & Jiménez, Juan Pablo, 2009. "The role of tax policy in the context of the crisis: possibilities and limitations," Documentos de Proyectos 4169, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    10. Bértola, Luis & Camou, María & Maubrigades, Silvana & Melgar, Natalia, 2008. "Human development and inequality in the 20th Century : the Mercosur countries in a comparative perspective," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp08-06, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    11. Dancourt, Óscar & Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo, 2010. "Perú: Lecciones de la recesión de 2008-2009
      [Peru: Lessons from the recession of 2008-2009]
      ," MPRA Paper 74889, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kacef, Osvaldo, 2009. "Crisis and public policies in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documentos de Proyectos 4168, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. Ramírez, Carlos D., 2009. "Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2185-2198, December.
    14. Eduardo Wiesner, 2008. "The Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policy Reform in Latin America," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12913.
    15. Sergio V. Barone & Ricardo Descalzi & Alberto M. Díaz Cafferata, 2012. "Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(1), pages 123-141, January.
    16. José De Gregorio, 2007. "Algunas Reflexiones sobre el Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 20, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. -, 2009. "Políticas macroeconómicas en tiempos de crisis: opciones y perspectivas," Documentos de Proyectos 275, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 14034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. -, 2008. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2007-2008: Macroeconomic policy and volatility," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1067 edited by Eclac, March.
    20. Fanelli, José María & Jiménez, Juan Pablo, 2009. "Crisis, volatilidad y política fiscal en América Latina," Documentos de Proyectos 4165, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    21. Edwards, Sebastian, 2009. "Sequencing of reforms, financial globalization, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 131-148, June.
    22. Kacef, Osvaldo, 2009. "Crisis y políticas públicas en América Latina y el Caribe," Documentos de Proyectos 4164, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    23. Roberto Meurer, 2011. "Measuring the impact of financial flows on macroeconomic variables: the case of Brazil after the 2008 crisis," Working Papers 0117, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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