Measuring the impact of financial flows on macroeconomic variables: the case of Brazil after the 2008 crisis
The effects of changes in foreign portfolio investment flows on Brazilian GDP and investment during the financial crisis of 2008 are evaluated through impulse-response functions, parsimonious models, and out of sample forecasts. Impulse-response functions results show a positive relation between fixed income flows and GDP and investment, but this relation is not as strong between the real variables and equity flows, although these flows anticipate GDP and investment behavior. Expectations seem to have an important role in explaining GDP and investment, which also have an influence on flows. The reduced vulnerability of the Brazilian economy consequently lessened the effect of the crisis when compared with previous crisis episodes.
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