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The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra-industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement

  • Jarko Fidrmuc

This article tests the endogeneity hypothesis of optimum currency area (OCA) criteria in a cross-section of OECD countries in the 1990s. It argues that intraindustry trade induces convergence of business cycles, while no direct relation between business cycles and bilateral trade intensity is found. This finding confirms the OCA endogeneity hypothesis, but it underlines the role of trade specialization. Furthermore, the endogeneity of OCA criteria implies a comparable degree of business cycle harmonization of Central and Eastern European countries with the EU as for the current members in the medium run. (JEL "F15", "F41") Copyright 2004 Western Economic Association International.

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Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:22:y:2004:i:1:p:1-12
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  1. Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2001. "Central Banking and the Choice of Currency Regime in Accession Countries," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  2. Hochreiter, Eduard & Winckler, Georg, 1995. "The advantages of tying Austria's hands: The success of the hard currency strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 83-111, March.
  3. David Hummels & James Levinsohn, 1993. "Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of monetary unions: Lessons from the break-up of Czechoslovakia," ZEI Working Papers B 17-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  6. Cincibuch, Martin & Vávra, David, 2000. "Towards the EMU: A Need For Exchange Rate Flexibility?," Transition Economics Series 17, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  7. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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