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Convergence in Output in Transition Economies: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1995

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  • Estrin, Saul
  • Urga, Giovanni

Abstract

In this paper we use unit roots/cointegration analysis and time-varying parameters procedures to test for a common growth path in the ex-communist block, both pre- and post-reform. We test whether there has been convergence within the block and between the block as a group and the West. Surprisingly, there is little evidence of convergence within the communist block, which brings into question the effectiveness of policies to reduce differentials in income per capita across the region under the communists. There is also little evidence of convergence with respect to the West, for the 1970–90 period and when the early years of reform are included (1970–95).

Suggested Citation

  • Estrin, Saul & Urga, Giovanni, 1997. "Convergence in Output in Transition Economies: Central and Eastern Europe, 1970-1995," CEPR Discussion Papers 1616, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1616
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December.
    2. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "The Euro goes East: Implications of the 2000–2002 Economic Slowdown for Synchronisation of Business Cycles between the Euro area and CEECs," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 46(1), pages 45-62, March.
    3. Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2001. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," Transition Economics Series 20, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    4. Joan Costa Font & Joan Batalla Bejerano, 1998. "Eastern European Countries and the EMU: departure situation and transition strategies," ERSA conference papers ersa98p192, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth Models; Kalman Filter; Time Series Test; Transition Economies; Unit Roots;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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