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The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects

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  • Wagner, Martin
  • Hlouskova, Jaroslava

Abstract

The Central and Eastern European countries' prospects of becoming EU members depend heavily on, among other things, their per capita GDP levels. It is shown that the neoclassical growth model does not yet adequately describe the growth process in these countries. This makes a direct growth accounting exercise to assess these countries' growth prospects infeasible. Therefore an indirect approach is taken, which maps the Western European growth experience in 10 Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). This indirect approach is used to project growth rates of the CEEC10 and the time required to close or narrow the income gaps to the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is analysed by presenting a wide variety of economically meaningful scenarios. Finally, possible beneficial effects of EU membership or pre-accession aids are studied. The effects of these measures on the reduction of the times to converge are computed.

Suggested Citation

  • Wagner, Martin & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2002. "The CEEC10's Real Convergence Prospects," CEPR Discussion Papers 3318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3318
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2006. "Essays on empirical macroeconomics," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2006_034, October.
    2. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    3. Vojinović, Borut & Acharya, Sanjaya & Próchniak, Mariusz, 2009. "Convergence Analysis Among the Ten European Transition Economies," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(2), pages 17-35, December.
    4. Sandrine Levasseur, 2006. "Convergence and FDI in an enlarged EU : what can we learn from the experience of cohesion countries for the CEECS ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972693, HAL.
    5. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_034 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2007. "European integration, productivity growth and real convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1370-1395, August.
    7. Andreea Vass, 2005. "Romania and the trade and the development approaches to CEE convergence with the EU, under the competitive pressures of integration," IWE Working Papers 151, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    8. Mehrotra, Aaron N. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2005. "Socio-economic development and fiscal policy: lessons from the cohesion countries for the new member states," Working Paper Series 467, European Central Bank.
    9. Peter Huber & Herbert Brücker & Janos Köllö & Iulia Traistaru & Tomasz Mickiewicz, 2002. "Regional and Labour Market Development in Candidate Countries. A Literature Survey," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 23340, July.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3382 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Paavo Okko, 2003. "Regional growth and convergence via integration – the case of the large EU," ERSA conference papers ersa03p445, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Kaitila, Ville, 2004. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Discussion Papers 935, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    13. Markandya, Anil & Pedroso-Galinato, Suzette & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2006. "Energy intensity in transition economies: Is there convergence towards the EU average?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 121-145, January.
    14. Stephan, Johannes, 2003. "EU Accession Countries’ Specialisation Patterns in Foreign Trade and Domestic Production - What can we infer for catch-up prospects?," IWH Discussion Papers 184/2003, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Alisher Akhmedjonov & Marco Chi Keung Lau & Berna Balcı İzgi, 2013. "New evidence of regional income divergence in post-reform Russia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2675-2682, June.
    16. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2006. "Essays on empirical macroeconomics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2006_034.
    17. Kaitila, Ville, 2003. "Convergence of Real GDP per Capita in the EU15 area: How do the Accession Countries Fit in ?," Discussion Papers 865, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Transition economies; EU accession; growth and convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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