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CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain

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  • Martin Wagner
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the necessity for an "indirect" approach to assess the growth and convergence prospects of ten Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). Ongoing structural changes in these countries and the recent European Union membership of eight countries in the sample have to be taken into account in growth projections. Copyright (c) 2005 The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

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  • Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:13:y:2005:i:2:p:341-372
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
    2. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Canela, Miguel A., 2008. "Limited partners' perceptions of the Central Eastern European venture capital and private equity market," IESE Research Papers D/727, IESE Business School.
    3. Groh, Alexander Peter & von Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "How attractive is central Eastern Europe for risk capital investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 625-647, June.
    4. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
    5. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Lieser, Karsten, 2008. "The European venture capital and private equity country attractiveness index(es)," IESE Research Papers D/773, IESE Business School.
    6. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2007. "Debt, deficits, and the accession of the new member States to the Euro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-337, June.
    7. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
    8. Lewis, John, 2009. "Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 508-524, December.
    9. Kornai, János, 2005. "Közép-Kelet-Európa nagy átalakulása - siker és csalódás
      [The great transformation of Central and Eastern Europe - success and disappointment]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 907-936.
    10. Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Julia Wörz, 2009. "Macroconvergence in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 5, pages 56-65.
    11. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
    12. Groh, Alexander P. & Liectenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The first step of the capital flow from institutions to entrepreneurs: The criteria for sorting venture capital funds," IESE Research Papers D/795, IESE Business School.
    13. Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Oberhofer, Harald & Smits, Karlis & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2012. "Drivers of convergence in eleven eastern European countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6185, The World Bank.
    14. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2005. "Baltic Trade with Europe: Back to the Roots?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 15-37, July.
    15. Morten Hansen, 2005. "The Irosh Growth Miracle: Can Latvia Replicate?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 3-14, July.
    16. World Bank, 2012. "EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11896, The World Bank.
    17. Andreea Vass, 2005. "Romania and the trade and the development approaches to CEE convergence with the EU, under the competitive pressures of integration," IWE Working Papers 151, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies- Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    18. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Loichinger, Elke & Vincelette, Gallina A., 2016. "Aging and income convergence in Europe: A survey of the literature and insights from a demographic projection exercise," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 4-17.
    19. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    20. Ivo Bicanic & Saul D. Hoffman & Oriana Vukoja, 2010. "Croatian Wage Inequality and Wage Differentials, 1970-2008: Measurement and Determinants," Working Papers 10-03, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P21 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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