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CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain

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  • Martin Wagner
  • Jaroslava Hlouskova

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the necessity for an indirect approach to assess the growth and convergence prospects of ten Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). Ongoing structural changes in these countries and the recent European Union membership of eight countries in the sample have to be taken into account in growth projections. Our indirect approach consists of basing growth projections for the CEEC10 on growth equations estimated for the incumbent EU member states. The study improves upon current practice in two ways. First, growth equations are estimated for the EU14 and not on a large heterogeneous panel that includes many countries unrelated to the CEEC10. Second, by means of a variety of equations and scenarios we assess the uncertainty inherent in such projections. We present growth‐rate and convergence time distributions. The mean convergence times are in line with previous findings. The growth‐rate and convergence time distributions are bi‐modal, reflecting the possibility of two distinct growth paths, depending upon economic policy choices.

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  • Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:13:y:2005:i:2:p:341-372
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0351.2005.00215.x
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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Michael Kremer, 1997. "Disorganization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1091-1126.
    2. Smirnykh, Larisa & Woergoetter, Andreas, 2021. "Regional convergence in CEE before and after the Global Financial Crisis," IHS Working Paper Series 33, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Lieser, Karsten, 2008. "The European venture capital and private equity country attractiveness index(es)," IESE Research Papers D/773, IESE Business School.
    4. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2007. "Debt, deficits, and the accession of the new member States to the Euro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-337, June.
    5. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
    6. Kornai, János, 2005. "Közép-Kelet-Európa nagy átalakulása - siker és csalódás [The great transformation of Central and Eastern Europe - success and disappointment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 907-936.
    7. Martin Wagner & Achim Zeileis, 2019. "Heterogeneity and Spatial Dependence of Regional Growth in the EU: A Recursive Partitioning Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(1), pages 67-82, February.
    8. Rasmus Kattai & John Lewis, 2005. "Hooverism, Hyperstabilisation or Halfway-House? Describing Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European EU Members," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 38-47, July.
    9. Ellen Thio & MeiXuen Tan & Liang Li & Muhammad Salman & Xingle Long & Huaping Sun & Bangzhu Zhu, 2022. "The estimation of influencing factors for carbon emissions based on EKC hypothesis and STIRPAT model: Evidence from top 10 countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 11226-11259, September.
    10. World Bank, 2012. "EU11 Regular Economic Report : Coping with External Headwinds," World Bank Publications - Reports 11896, The World Bank Group.
    11. Andreea Vass, 2005. "Romania and the trade and the development approaches to CEE convergence with the EU, under the competitive pressures of integration," IWE Working Papers 151, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    12. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Loichinger, Elke & Vincelette, Gallina A., 2016. "Aging and income convergence in Europe: A survey of the literature and insights from a demographic projection exercise," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 4-17.
    13. Wagner, Martin, 2005. "The Balassa-Samuelson Effect in 'East & West'. Differences and Similarities," Economics Series 180, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    14. Ivo Bicanic & Saul D. Hoffman & Oriana Vukoja, 2010. "Croatian Wage Inequality and Wage Differentials, 1970-2008: Measurement and Determinants," Working Papers 10-03, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    15. Groh, Alexander P. & Liechtenstein, Heinrich & Canela, Miguel A., 2008. "Limited partners' perceptions of the Central Eastern European venture capital and private equity market," IESE Research Papers D/727, IESE Business School.
    16. Groh, Alexander Peter & von Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "How attractive is central Eastern Europe for risk capital investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 625-647, June.
    17. János Kornai, 2006. "Velká transformace střední a východní Evropy: úspěch a zklamání [The great transformation of central and eastern Europe: success and disappointment]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(4), pages 435-466.
    18. Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Julia Wörz, 2009. "Macroconvergence in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 5, pages 56-65.
    19. Virmantas Kvedaras, 2005. "Explanation of Economic Growth Differences in the CEE Countries: Importance of the BOP Constraint," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 48-65, July.
    20. Groh, Alexander P. & Liectenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The first step of the capital flow from institutions to entrepreneurs: The criteria for sorting venture capital funds," IESE Research Papers D/795, IESE Business School.
    21. Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Oberhofer, Harald & Smits, Karlis & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2012. "Drivers of convergence in eleven eastern European countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6185, The World Bank.
    22. Lewis, John, 2009. "Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 508-524, December.
    23. Claus-Friedrich Laaser & Klaus Schrader, 2005. "Baltic Trade with Europe: Back to the Roots?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 15-37, July.
    24. Morten Hansen, 2005. "The Irish Growth Miracle: Can Latvia Replicate?," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 3-14, July.
    25. Jakub Growiec, 2005. "Dynamika konwergencji Polski z Unią Europejską," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5-6, pages 101-118.

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    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P21 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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