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An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs

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  • Boone, Laurence
  • Maurel, Mathilde

Abstract

This paper tries to assess whether it would be optimal for the CEECs to form a monetary union with either Germany or the EU. This cannot be done without discussing first the Maastricht criteria, which are the condition « sine qua non » for a country to be eligible. Yet, they are often independent from more structural criteria (Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1996b)). Hence, this paper argues that although the CEECs do not satisfy -yet- the Maastricht criteria, their economic cycle is close enough to that of the EU and Germany for a monetary union to bring them great benefits. Indeed, using a methodology derived by L. Reichlin and M. Forni (1997) and C. Fuss (1997), it can be shown that (i) the percentage of CEECs business cycle fluctuations explained by a German shock is very high,; (ii) furthermore, the impulse responses are positively correlated. These suggest that the CEECs would not suffer from a common monetary policy .

Suggested Citation

  • Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2119
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?," Economics Working Papers 92-188, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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