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Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

Recent proposals for enlarging the European Community to include the EFTA countries raise the question of whether the new members should participate in a European Monetary Union. In part, the issue hinges on the incidence of aggregate supply and demand disturbances. We use data on prices and output and a VAR decomposition to analyze this issue empirically, grouping economies according to the magnitude of the disturbances, their cross-country correlation, and speeds of response. This leads us to distinguish an EC "core" (made up of Germany and its immediate neighbors) and an EC periphery (made up of the UK and the Southern European members of the Community). Austria, Sweden and Switzerland behave more similarly to the EC core than do Norway, Finland and Iceland. This suggests that the case for EMU participation is stronger for Austria, Sweden and Switzerland than for the other EFTA countries.

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  • Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?," NBER Working Papers 3950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3950
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Silvio Borner & Herbert Grubel (ed.), The European Community after 1992, chapter 8, pages 138-161, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    5. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 644-652, June.
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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Mr. Etibar Jafarov & Ms. Anne Marie Gulde & Mr. Vassili Prokopenko, 2004. "A Common Currency for Belarus and Russia?," IMF Working Papers 2004/228, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Macroeconomic Adjustment under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 813-827, July.
    4. Frankel, J-A & Rose, A-K, 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Papers 611, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn M. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1992. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? Disentangling the Portfolio and Expectations Effects," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233167, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    6. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March.
    7. Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quiros, 1998. "The European Monetary Union: A Political Time Bomb," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 143-160, Fall.
    8. Weimann, Marco, 2002. "OCA theory and EMU eastern enlargement: An empirical application," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/02, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    9. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2013. "Provocările politicii monetare [Monetary policy challenges]," MPRA Paper 50261, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Sep 2013.
    10. Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1994. "Monetary Regimes, Inflation and Monetary Reform: An Essay in Honor of Axel Leijonhufvud," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 16, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Helene Schuberth & Gert D. Wehinger, 1999. "Costs of European Monetary Union: Evidence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Manfred M. Fischer & Peter Nijkamp (ed.), Spatial Dynamics of European Integration, chapter 3, pages 35-62, Springer.
    12. Daniel Laskar, 1993. "Union monétaire : différences structurelles et asymétrie des chocs," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(6), pages 1045-1070.
    13. Felipe Morandé & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2000. "Chile's Peso: Better than (Just) Living with the Dollar?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 37(110), pages 177-226.
    14. Stazka, Agnieszka, 2008. "International parity relations between Poland and Germany: a cointegrated VAR approach," MPRA Paper 24057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
    16. Jeff Frankel, Steve Phillips, and Menzie Chinn., 1992. "Financial and Currency Integration in the European Monetary System: The Statistical Record," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C92-005, University of California at Berkeley.
    17. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1995. "L'Europe à géométrie variable, une analyse économique," Working Papers 1995-04, CEPII research center.
    18. Helene Schuberth, 1998. "Room for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?," Working Papers 35, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    19. Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "Intégration monétaire et géométrie variable," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 495-504.
    20. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Gerlach, Stefan, 1995. "Adjustable pegs vs. single currencies: How valuable is the option to realign?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1155-1170, June.
    23. Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quirós, 1999. "The European Monetary Union: A Political Time Bomb," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 143-160, Spring/Su.
    24. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The gold standard, Bretton Woods and other monetary regimes: a historical appraisal," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 123-191.
    25. Massimo Amato & Kako Nubukpo, 2020. "Una nuova moneta per gli stati dell'Africa dell'Ovest. Le condizioni teoriche e politiche della sua fattibilità (A new currency for West African states: The theoretical and political conditions of its," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(289), pages 83-107.

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