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Are Aggregate Consumption Relationships Similar Across the European Union?

  • Alan Carruth
  • Heather Gibson
  • Euclid Tsakalotos

CARRUTH A., GIBSON H. and TSAKALOTOS E. (1999) Are aggregate consumption relationships similar across the European Union?, Reg. Studies 33 , 17-26. The answer to the question posed in the title of the paper may have some bearing on whether consumer spending will respond in similar ways to common shocks across the European Union. The DHSY model is implemented, its robustness and its commonality assessed for the 15 EU countries. The model performs encouragingly well across this group of countries, though there is evidence that the long run, unit elasticity restriction is not valid for a number of countries. Our results do not support the hypothesis of common aggregate consumption behaviour for these countries. Similar tests across the five core countries, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg show somewhat greater conformity in the DHSY consumption estimates, as might be expected, but nevertheless the coefficient estimates are not similar at conventional significance levels. CARRUTH A., GIBSON H. et TSAKOLTOS E. (1999) Dans quelle mesure est-ce que la consommation globale reagit de la me⁁me facon a travers les pays de l'Union europeenne?, Reg. Studies 33 , 17-26. La reponse a la question posee ci-dessus pourrait avoir un impact non-negligeable sur les depenses a la consommation a travers l'Union europeenne a la suite des chocs communs. Le modele DHSY se voit employer, et sa robustesse et sa validite evaluer pour ce qui est des quinze pays-membres de l'union europeenne. Heureusement, le modele a de bons resultats a travers ce regroupement de pays, quoique tout indique que la contrainte a long terme relative a l'elasticite unitaire n'est pas valable pour quelques pays. Les resultats ne viennent pas a l'appui de l'hypothese qui pro⁁ne un comportement commun dans ces pays quant a la consommation globale. Des tests similaires faits dans les principaux cinq pays, a savoir l'Allemagne, les Pays-Bas, la Belgie, et le Luxembourg, montrent que les estimations DHSY de la consommation sont plus conformes, comme prevu. Toujours est-il que les estimations des coefficients ne sont pas similaires a des niveaux d'importance statistique conventionnels. CARRUTH A., GIBSON H. und TSAKALOTOS E. (1999) Sind aggregierte Verbrauchsbeziehungen in der ganzen EU ahnlich?, Reg. Studies 33 , 17-26. Die Antwort auf das im Titel aufgeworfene Problem konnte fur die Frage von Belang sein, ob Verbraucherausgaben in der ganzen EU auf ihnen gemeinsame Erschutterungen in ahnlicher Weise reagieren. Das DHSY Modell wird in die Tat umgesetzt, seine Widerstandsfahigkeit und allgemein verbreitetes Vorkommen fur die 15 EU Lander beurteilt. Es ist ermutigend, wie gut sich der Einsatz des Modells in all diesen Landern bewahrt, obwohl es Anzeichen gibt, dass die langfristige Beschrankung der Einheitenelastizitat fur einige Lander nicht zutrifft. Die Ergebnisse der Autoren sprechen nicht fur die Hypothese allgemein aggregierten Verbraucherverhaltens in allen Landern. Vergleichbare Untersuchungen in den funf Kernlandern Deutschland, Frankreich, Belgien, Luxemburg und den Niederlanden ergeben eine etwas grossere Gleichartigkeit der DHSY Verbrauchsschatzungen als man erwarten sollte; die Koeffizientenschatzungen sind aber auf der Ebene konventioneller Signifikanz nichtsdestoweniger nicht gleichartig.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Regional Studies.

Volume (Year): 33 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 17-26

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Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:33:y:1999:i:1:p:17-26
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