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Business cycle synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. periphery

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Clemens Domnick
  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

This paper examines business cycle synchronization in the European Monetary Union with a special focus on the core-periphery pattern in the aftermath of the crisis. Using a quarterly index for business cycle synchronization by Cerqueira (2013), our panel data estimates suggest that it is countries belonging to the core that are faced with increased synchronization among themselves after 2007Q4, whereas peripheral countries decreased synchronization with regards to the core, non-EMU countries and among themselves. Correlation coefficients and nonparametric local polynomial regressions corroborate these findings. The usual focus on co-movements and correlations might be misleading, however, since we also find large differences in the amplitude of national cycles. A strong common cycle can thus lead to large differences in cyclical positions even if national cycles are strongly correlated.

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  • Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2016. "Business cycle synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. periphery," ROME Working Papers 201608, ROME Network.
  • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201608
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    2. Cinzia Alcidi & Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Florian Neumeier, 2017. "The Nature of Shocks in the Eurozone and Their Absorption Channels," EconPol Policy Reports 3, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries," IREA Working Papers 201714, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2017.
    4. repec:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9434-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2017. "Output gap similarities in Europe: Detecting country groups," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 305, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
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    7. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Sondermann, David, 2018. "Macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area: where do we stand?," Occasional Paper Series 211, European Central Bank.
    8. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2017. "Could the boom-bust in the eurozone periphery have been prevented?," GRAPE Working Papers 17, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    9. Alcidi, Cinzia & D’Imperio, Paolo & Thirion, Gilles, 2017. "Risk-sharing and Consumption-smoothing Patterns in the US and the Euro Area: A comprehensive comparison," CEPS Papers 12514, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2017. "Endogenous Asymmetric Shocks in the Eurozone. The Role of Animal Spirits," CEPR Discussion Papers 11887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; core-periphery; EMU; local polynomial regressions; synchronicity;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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