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The European growth synchronization through crises and structural changes

Author

Listed:
  • Merih Uctum

    (Brooklyn College [CUNY, New York] - CUNY - City University of New York [New York], The Graduate Center - CUNY Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New York [New York])

  • Remzi Uctum

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPN SEGMI - Université Paris Nanterre - UFR Sciences économiques, gestion, mathématiques, informatique - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre)

  • Chu-Ping C Vijverberg

    (CSI CUNY - College of Staten Island [CUNY] - CUNY - City University of New York [New York], The Graduate Center - CUNY Graduate Center - CUNY - City University of New York [New York])

Abstract

In light of several economic and financial crises and institutional changes experienced by the European countries, we examine whether these economies achieved synchronization of their business cycles and fostered synchronization of their growth rates. Controlling for reverse causality, we conduct multiple endogenous break tests and find (i) several endogenous break dates that correspond to idiosyncratic shocks affecting individual countries, major shocks in international arena but not the adoption of the euro, suggesting that the convergence process has been nonlinear for a number of countries and that studies imposing break dates exogenously, such as the launch of euro, may lead to biased conclusions; (ii) while output growth was increasingly synchronized for some countries, integration occurred in an asymmetric way and it didn't change or didn't occur for others despite being in the same common currency area (iii) convergence has been prevalent among the non-Eurozone economies in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Merih Uctum & Remzi Uctum & Chu-Ping C Vijverberg, 2021. "The European growth synchronization through crises and structural changes," Post-Print hal-03319011, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03319011
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2018-0097
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03319011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convergence; growth synchronization; euro; crises; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization

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