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Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey A.
  • Rose, Andrew K.

Abstract

Everyone studying EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a Country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU members and the correlation of Sweden's income with that of other members. Few economists have focused on what we consider one of the most interesting aspects of this issue. Trade patterns and income correlations are endogenous. Sweden could fail the OCA criterion for membership today, and yet, if it goes ahead and joins anyway, could, as the result of joining, pass the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criterion in the future. (Further, even if Sweden does not enter EMU quickly, it will be more likely to satisfy the OCA criteria in the future as a result of its recent accession to the EU.) The few economists who have identified the importance of the endogeneity of trade patterns and income correlation are divided on the nature of the relationship between the two. This is an important empirical question, which may hold the key to the answer regarding whether it is in Sweden's interest to join EMU. We review the OCA theory, highlighting the role of trade links and income links. Then we discuss and analyze the endogeneity of these parameters. We present econometric evidence suggesting strongly that if trade links between Sweden and the rest of Europe strength in the future, then Sweden's income will become more highly correlated with European income in the future (not less correlated, as some have claimed). This has important implications for the OCA criterion. It means that a naive examination of historical data gives a biased picture of the effects of EMU entry on Sweden. It also means that EMU membership is more likely to make sense for Sweden in the future than it does today.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233436, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ucbewp:233436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chantal Dupasquier & Jocelyn Jacob, 1997. "European economic and monetary union: Background and implications," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1997(Autumn), pages 3-28.
    2. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1998. "International Experiences With Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Seminar Papers 648, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    3. Kenen, Peter B., 2000. "Currency areas, policy domains, and the institutionalization of fixed exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Demopoulos, George D. & Yannacopoulos, Nicholas A., 2001. "On the optimality of a currency area of a given size," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-24, January.
    5. Duval, Romain & Li, Nan & Saraf, Richa & Seneviratne, Dulani, 2016. "Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 251-262.
    6. Westlund, Hans & Johansson, Magnus & Molinder, Jonas, 2000. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity Of Swedish Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa00p140, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Lindbeck, A., 1998. "Swedish Lessons for Post-Socialist Countries," Papers 645, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    8. Giudici, Paolo & Huang, Bihong & Spelta, Alessandro, 2018. "Trade Networks and Economic Fluctuations in Asia," ADBI Working Papers 832, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc & Matúš Senaj, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Regimes in Slovakia and the New EU Member States (in Slovak)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(1-2), pages 40-57, January.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 1999. "Estimating the costs and benefits of EMU: The impact of external shocks on labour markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 1-47, March.
    11. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 0004, European Central Bank.
    12. Dominique Guillaume & David Stasavage, 1999. "Making and breaking monetary policy rules: the experience of African countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Larrain Felipe & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
    14. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    15. Merih Uctum & Remzi Uctum & Chu-Ping C. Vijverberg, 2017. "The Eurozone Convergence through Crises and Structural Changes," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda, 2001. "Is East Africa an Optimum Currency Area?," Working Papers in Economics 41, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    17. George Demopoulos & Nicholas Yannacopoulos, 1999. "Conditions for Optimality of a Currency Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 289-303, July.
    18. Lane, Philip R, 2000. " Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(4), pages 585-604, December.
    19. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
    20. Alesina, Alberto Francesco, 1997. "Comments on 'Europe's Gamble' by M. Obstfeld," Scholarly Articles 12553725, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    21. Fidrmuc, Jan, 1999. "Stochastic Shocks and Incentives for (Dis)Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Lan, Yuexing & Sylwester, Kevin, 2010. "Provincial fiscal positions and business cylce synchronization across China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 355-364, August.
    23. Kamleshan Pillay & Jorge E. Viñuales, 2016. "“Monetary” rules for a linked system of offset credits," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 933-951, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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