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Intertemporal Price Speculation and the Optimal Current-Account Deficit: Reply and Clarification

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice
  • Obstfeld, Maurice

Abstract

In the model of Obstfeld (1983), a country hurt by a temporary shift in its terms of trade, whether the shift is infinitesimal or not, always runs a temporary current-account deficit. Temporary rises in relative export prices always cause surpluses in the model. This note derives these results within an analysis that clarifies how temporary terms-of-trade shocks affect the consumption-based real interest rate on external debt and, hence, the current account.
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(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • Obstfeld, Maurice & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Intertemporal Price Speculation and the Optimal Current-Account Deficit: Reply and Clarification," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5n37z46f, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ciders:qt5n37z46f
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    2. Jeffrey A Frankel, 1993. "Is there a Currency Bloc in the Pacific?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.),The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233209, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "A Proposal to Introduce the ECU First in the East," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233415, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    6. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1992. "Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-47.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1994. "Trading Blocs: The Natural, the Unnatural, and the Super-Natural," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233217, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    8. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "The Crisis in the EMS and the Transition to EMU: An Interim Assessment," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-022, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1995. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Federalism, Fiscal Restrictions and the No-Bailout Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "History and Reform of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233391, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    11. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799, Elsevier.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry & Simmons, Beth, 1993. "International Economics and Domestic Politics: Notes on the 1920s," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233212, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Regional Trading Arrangements: Natural or Supernatural," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 52-56, May.
    14. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "The Stability of the Gold Standard and the Evolution of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-040, University of California at Berkeley.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233420, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    16. Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "What Do Currency Crises Tell Us About the Future of the International Monetary System?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-057, University of California at Berkeley.
    17. Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "The Bretton Woods System: Paradise Lost?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-043, University of California at Berkeley.
    18. Maurice Obstfeld, 1993. "International Capital Mobility in the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 4534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-145, August.
    20. Eichengreen, Barry, 1995. "Sterling in Decline Again: The 1931 and 1992 Crises Compared," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233404, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    21. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
    22. Eichengreen, Barry & Flandreau, Marc, 1994. "The Geography of the Gold Standard," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233393, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    23. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
    24. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1987. "Fiscal Policies and the World Economy; An Intertemporal Approach (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987)," MPRA Paper 20438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Regional Trading Arrangements," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5hf1z4rv, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frankel, J-A & Rose, A-K, 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Papers 611, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    2. Bardhan, Pranab, 1996. "The Nature of Institutional Impediments to Economic Development," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233429, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    3. Serven, Luis, 1999. "Terms-of-trade shocks and optimal investment: another look at the Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-365.
    4. Chen Fang & Po-Sheng Lin, 2013. "Traded Bond Denominations, Shock Persistence and Current Account Dynamics: Another Look at the Harberger–Laursen–Metzler Effect," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 502-529, October.
    5. Bouakez, Hafedh & Kano, Takashi, 2008. "Terms of trade and current account fluctuations: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 260-281, March.
    6. Olivier Cardi, 2007. "The Zero‐root Property: Permanent vs Temporary Terms‐of‐trade Shocks," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 782-802, September.
    7. Gabriela Contreras & Alejandro Jara & Eduardo Olaberría & Diego Saravia, 2011. "Sobre el nivel de reservas internacionales de Chile: análisis a partir de enfoques complementarios," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 621, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Meltem Ince, 2010. "Global Financial Crisis and Turkey: Effects and Suggestions," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 101-117.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; terms of trade; intertemporal models of the current account; Social and Behavioral Sciences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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