Regional Trading Arrangements: Natural or Supernatural
This paper summarizes recent research by the authors on the effects of free trade areas (FTAs). Within our model, which emphasizes inter-continental transport costs, several conclusions arise. (1) FTAs are likely to be detrimental over a moderate range of parameter values, even if drawn along natural regional lines. (2) A small margin of preferences for neighbors is beneficial. (3) Optimal preferences depend on the parameters, particularly on transport costs. (4) If preferences are raised further, they enter the zone of negative returns to regionalization, and eventually the super-natural zone, where welfare is lower than under the MFN status quo. Estimates from the gravity model suggest the world system may already be in the super-natural zone. The core model leaves out many factors. But we have pursued a variety of extensions by now. Perhaps the two most important are generalizing the highly stylized model of trade (to include factor endowments), and relaxing the assumption that the inter-bloc level of tariffs remains fixed. In the latter case, allowing tariffs to be endogenous yields a much more optimistic outlook for the effects of FTAs.
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Volume (Year): 86 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1998.
"Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs,"
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- Stern, R.M. & Deardorff, A.V., 1992. "Multilateral Trade Negociations and Preferential Trading Arrangements," Working Papers 307, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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- Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
- Antonio Spilimbergo & Ernesto Stein, 1998.
"The Welfare Implications of Trading Blocs among Countries with Different Endowments,"
in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 121-152
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Spilimbergo & Ernesto H. Stein, 1996. "The Welfare Implications of Trading Blocs among Countries with Different Endowments," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6860, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Antonio Spilimbergo & Ernesto Stein, 1996. "The Welfare Implications of Trading Blocs among Countries with Different Endowments," NBER Working Papers 5472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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