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Recent Exchange-Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform

  • Frankel, Jeffrey A

The paper reviews the grounds for fears that foreign exchange markets are not behaving as well as they should: recent misalignments and crises, and seven sets of academic findings. (1) Exchange rate volatility is high, (2) with possible adverse effects. (3) Volatility cannot be explained by observable fundamentals, (4) and changes when the regime changes, even without a change in volatility of fundamentals. (5) Expectations appear to be biased. (6) Short-term expectations are destabilizing. And (7) the effect of changes in monetary policy on the exchange rate is drawn out over time, and is not instantaneous.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 86 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 153-58

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:86:y:1996:i:2:p:153-58
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Simmons, Beth, 1993. "International Economics and Domestic Politics: Notes on the 1920s," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233212, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  3. Eichengreen, Barry & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1995. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Federalism, Fiscal Restrictions and the No-Bailout Rule," CEPR Discussion Papers 1247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets: Introduction," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-033, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233395, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
  6. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. McKinnon, Ronald I, 1988. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for International Financial Stability: A Proposal," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 83-103, Winter.
  8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233213, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
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