IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/harjfk/rwp04-039.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU

Author

Listed:
  • Frankel, Jeffrey

    (Harvard U)

Abstract

Optimum currency area theory says that trade patterns and cyclical correlations are important criteria for whether a country should join a monetary area such as EMU. But these criteria are endogenous. Recent econometric estimates suggest that currency unions have far greater effects on trade patterns than previously believed. Since currency unions are good for trade, and trade is good for growth, that is one major argument in favor of adopting the euro. There are the usual countervailing arguments for retaining monetary independence, particularly the famous asymmetric shocks. But the pattern of shocks is also endogenous. For the countries of Central and Eastern Europe joining the EU in 2004, one risk-averse argument for joining later, but not necessarily yet, is that trade with euroland can be expected to continue increasing. Econometric estimates suggest that the growing trade links will in turn lead to growing cyclical correlation, that is, to cyclical convergence. The implication is that the new EU members may better qualify for the optimum currency area criteria in the future, even in just five years, than they do as of today. Another kind of convergence, income convergence, is also relevant, but will take too long to wait for.

Suggested Citation

  • Frankel, Jeffrey, 2004. "Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU," Working Paper Series rwp04-039, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp04-039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://research.hks.harvard.edu/publications/getFile.aspx?Id=139
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Volker Nitsch, 2000. "National borders and international trade: evidence from the European Union," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1091-1105, November.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    3. Fatas, Antonio, 1997. "EMU: Countries or regions? Lessons from the EMS experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 743-751, April.
    4. Laura Bottazzi & Giovanni Peri, "undated". "Innovation, Demand and Knowledge Spillovers: Theory and Evidence from European Regions," Working Papers 153, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    6. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2001. "Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration: A Price Based Approach," NBER Working Papers 8468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
    8. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    9. Angeloni, Ignazio & Dedola, Luca, 1999. "From the ERM to the euro: new evidence on economic and policy convergence among EU countries," Working Paper Series 4, European Central Bank.
    10. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233209, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    12. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1995. "European Integration and the Regionalization of World Trade and Currencies: The Economics and the Politics," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233413, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    14. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Regional convergence clusters across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 951-958, April.
    16. Honkapohja, Seppo & Pikkarainen, Pentti, 1992. "Country Characteristics and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Mini-skirts Followed by Maxis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Richard E. Baldwin & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano, 2021. "Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 2, pages 25-57, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Verboven, Frank, 2005. "Market integration and convergence to the Law of One Price: evidence from the European car market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 49-73, January.
    19. Paul De Grauwe & Wim Vanhaverbeke, 2014. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 8, pages 231-252, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    21. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    22. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    23. Aitken, Norman D, 1973. "The Effect of the EEC and EFTA on European Trade: A Temporal Cross-Section Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 881-892, December.
    24. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2001. "International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 371-375, May.
    25. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    26. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
    27. Havrylyshyn, Oleh & Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "European trade patterns after the transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 748, The World Bank.
    28. Jean IMBS, 1998. "Co-Fluctuations," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9819, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    29. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    30. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
    31. Hugh Rockoff, 1999. "How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?," Departmental Working Papers 199910, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    32. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent E. & Yosha, Oved, 2001. "Economic integration, industrial specialization, and the asymmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 107-137, October.
    33. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    34. Peter B. Kenen & Ellen E. Meade, 2003. "EU Accession and the Euro: Close Together or Far Apart?," Policy Briefs PB03-09, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    35. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    36. de Melo, Jaime & Montenegro, Claudio & Panagariya, Arvind, 1992. "Regional integration, old and new," Policy Research Working Paper Series 985, The World Bank.
    37. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Ben-David, Dan & Rahman, Atiqur, 1996. "Technological Convergence and International Trade," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275614, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    39. Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    40. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    41. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1989. "The European Monetary Union: An Agnostic Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    42. Wolfgang Keller, 2004. "International Technology Diffusion," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 752-782, September.
    43. Quah, Danny, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1286, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    45. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2002. "Technological Diffusion, Conditional Convergence, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 8713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    47. Peter Backé & Christian Thimann & Olga Arratibel & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Arnaud Mehl & Carolin Nerlich, 2004. "The acceding countries’ strategies towards ERM II and the adoption of the euro - an analytical review," Occasional Paper Series 10, European Central Bank.
    48. Torres, Alberto & Vela, Oscar, 2003. "Trade integration and synchronization between the business cycles of Mexico and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-342, December.
    49. Buiter, Willem H. & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "`Excessive Deficits': Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht," CEPR Discussion Papers 750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Babetskii, Ian & Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 2002. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: The Case of the Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    51. Costas Megir & Danny Quah, 1996. "Regional Convergence Clusters Across Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0274, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    52. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    54. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Duo & Tan, Tao, 2009. "How much intraregional exchange rate variability could a currency union remove? The case of ASEAN+3," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1793-1803, October.
    2. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles Implications for EMU enlargement1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, July.
    4. Gheorghe Savoiu & Marian Siminica, 2016. "Disparities, Discrepancies and Specific Concentration – Diversification Trends in the Group of Central and East European Ex-Socialist Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(43), pages 503-503, August.
    5. Cohen, Joseph N., 2008. "Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America," MPRA Paper 22435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
    7. Kozlova, Olesia & de Jesus Noguera, Jose, 2018. "Achievers or slackers? Per capita income trends in European countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1332-1345.
    8. Viviana Fernández & Ali M. Kutan, 2005. "Do Regional Integration Agreements Increase Business-Cycle Convergence? Evidence from Apec and Nafta," Documentos de Trabajo 202, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    9. repec:ath:journl:tome:34:v:2:y:2014:i:34:p:13-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0489 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Iwona Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz, 2016. "Foreign trade and the theory of optimum currency areas. Implications for Poland," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 13, pages 5-26, March.
    12. Timo Baas, 2014. "Estonia and the European Monetary Union – Are there Benefi ts from a “Late” Accession?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0489, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Carlo Di Giorgio, 2016. "Business Cycle Synchronization of CEECs with the Euro Area: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 284-300, March.
    14. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro's trade effects," Working Paper Series 594, European Central Bank.
    15. Cristian Păun & Ștefan Ungureanu, 2015. "The Nominal And Real Convergence:A Real Problem For A Single Currency Area," Review of Social and Economic Issues, Romanian-American University, vol. 1(2), pages 29-49, march.
    16. Cristian Păun, 2016. "The Adoption Of Euro In Case Of Romania: The Main (Counter) Arguments," Review of Social and Economic Issues, Romanian-American University, vol. 1(3), pages 76-94, march.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria," Working Paper Series rwp08-059, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    3. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233436, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade: Why Are They Below Historical Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," Working Paper Series rwp08-076, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    6. Salvador Barrios & Marius Brülhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co‐Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, June.
    7. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    8. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2005. "Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G-7 Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 721-740, November.
    9. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    10. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    11. Schor, Armand-Denis, 2000. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales : l’optimum, le praticable, le crédible et le réel," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(4), pages 545-576, décembre.
    12. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro's trade effects," Working Paper Series 594, European Central Bank.
    13. Ionut Jianu, 2020. "Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania," Papers 2007.11407, arXiv.org.
    14. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    15. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, December.
    17. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesús & Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2013. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 265-284.
    18. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2009. "Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2996-3014.
    19. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.
    20. Etoundi Atenga, Eric Martial, 2017. "On the Determinants of output Co-movements in the CEMAC Zone:Examining the Role of Trade, Policy Channel, Economic Structure and Common Factors," MPRA Paper 82091, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp04-039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ksharus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ksharus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.