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Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: The Case of the Accession Countries

  • Babetskii, Ian
  • Boone, Laurence
  • Maurel, Mathilde

This Paper reviews the pros and cons of an early EU enlargement towards Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs hereafter). First, the Maastricht criteria, which cannot be literally assessed during the catching up process, but that nevertheless mirror the huge efforts undertaken in order to (i) stabilise the economies, (ii) converge towards the EU, and then (iii) participate into the EMU, are analysed. Second, real convergence is observed to occur at different rates, depending upon the initial conditions faced and the productivity gains realised by each country. Third, computing the correlation of demand and supply shocks in a wide sample of Euro countries and the CEECs, gives some indication of the similarity of the business cycles and economic structures of the CEECs on the one hand, and the EU on the other. Yet, we argue that looking at static correlation only (averaged over the last decade) is too simplistic, as the transition process will blur these averages. Using the Kalman filter, we are able to compute time varying correlation, hence differentiating between the transition and the most recent period. Our results emphasise an ongoing process of demand shocks convergence, but supply shocks divergence. Various exchange rate strategies are then discussed.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3408.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3408
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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1997. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Working Papers 5979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Berglof, Erik & Roland, Gerard, 1998. "Soft Budget Constraints and Banking in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 18-40, March.
  4. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1996. "Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," CEPR Discussion Papers 1484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Mathilde Maurel & Laurence Boone, 1999. "L’ancrage de l’Europe centrale et orientale à l’Union européenne," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/708, Sciences Po.
  6. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
  7. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Melitz, Jacques & Zumer, Frédéric, 1999. "Interregional and International Risk Sharing and Lessons for EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2154, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Kutan, Ali M. & Pautola-Mol, Niina, 2001. "Integration of the Baltic states into the EU and institutions of fiscal convergence: A critical evaluation of key issues and empirical evidence," ZEI Working Papers B 10-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
  11. Teolis, David P. & von Furstenberg, George M., 1993. "Reducing real exchange rate variability and drift: Mexico on the way to North American monetary union?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 253-269.
  12. Daniel Gros, 2000. "How Fit are the Candidates for EMU?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(10), pages 1367-1377, October.
  13. Jürgen Kröger & Denis Redonnet, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Integration: The Case of the Accession Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 6-13, October.
  14. Kutan, Ali M. & Pautola-Mol, Niina, 2002. "Integration of the Baltic States into the EU and Institutions of Fiscal Convergence," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  15. Laurence Boone, 1997. "Symmetry and Asymmetry of Supply and Demand Shocks in the European Union," Working Papers 1997-03, CEPII research center.
  16. Ronald McKinnon, 2002. "Optimum currency areas and the European experience," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 343-364, July.
  17. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/765 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Institutions Matter in Transition, But so do Policies," IMF Working Papers 00/70, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Brada, Josef C. & Ktan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  20. Kocenda, Evzen, 2001. "Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-23, March.
  21. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Mathilde Maurel, 2002. "Impacts économiques et sociaux de l'élargissement pour l'Union européenne et la France," Working Papers 2002-03, CEPII research center.
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